In the 7th place of the tournament table, Žalgiris will face off against Olympiacos, who currently holds the 2nd position.
Žalgiris does not seem stable. The start of the game against Hapoel was solid, but the lead quickly evaporated. The team once again fell into a close and nervous game until the last quarter, even though the opponent did not shine either. Such waves become dangerous against higher level opponents. Many times, Žalgiris loses control of the game and the obtained handicap often slips away in a matter of minutes.
Meanwhile, Olympiacos demonstrates a different style. They rely on discipline, physicality, and patience in controlling the pace of the game. In their last five games against each other, the Greeks celebrated, and the last match last November ended with a 17-point lead in their favor. This is not just a coincidence, but a trend.
In the past ten Euroleague games, the -2.5 point handicap with Olympiacos has only been unsuccessful twice. This not only shows their ability to win, but also their ability to close out the games with a larger lead. Such teams rarely let their opponents make emotional comebacks.
Žalgiris may start the game well and even briefly take the lead. However, their instability as a team, tendency to lose control, and difficulties in maintaining control of the game in close situations raises doubts against an opponent of this level. Olympiacos is a more stable team, and in these kinds of matches, it is typically stability that determines the outcome.
Considering the team's current form, head-to-head statistics, and the offered -2.5 point line, this handicap seems a bit too low to me. In this matchup, the Greeks have clear arguments for their advantage, both statistically and in terms of game quality.
Without going overboard with the bet, I choose Piraeus Olympiacos -2.5.
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