Eurovision 2026 odds

As soon as the offer opened, the coefficient was 3.5. Now we have even 5.00, although nothing significant happened.

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The prediction that the Eurovision will be won by a country from the first semi-final - Finland, Greece, Israel, or any other.

For three consecutive years, the favorite song of the audience ranked very close to Peru and took 2nd or 3rd place:
2023 - Käärijä
2024 - Baby Lasagna
2025 - Tommy Cash

This year, the most joyful and possibly the audience's favorite song could be Greece. I don't know if this year's Greek song will be as successful as the ones mentioned, but it definitely has potential. The song is truly unique. As a plus, I see that this year there are more countries supporting Greece as usual in Eurovision. Romania and Bulgaria have returned. However, the number of countries from the Balkan region has decreased. This year, Iceland, Ireland, and the Netherlands are not participating.

If I had to pick a winner right now, I would probably choose Denmark. There isn't a clear favorite yet. Finland is currently in the lead, but not quite convincingly and personally I don't see them winning at the moment. The contest is still about a month and a half away, so the odds will continue to change.

From what I've heard, Denmark just gives off 'winner vibes'. Their performance is good, engaging, polished, and Eurovision-ready. I don't think there is much to change before the big Eurovision. The performer has a strong, confident vocal. The last minute is more energetic and well-staged, which allows for a more memorable performance at Eurovision.

Serbia is my dark horse of the year. It will be the only heavy metal performance in Eurovision. This mystical performer attracts attention and roars as needed. I believe he will find my voter among the audience. Hopefully, the judging committee will also give some votes. Furthermore, I think Balkan neighbors will support each other as always. A good option is admiral casino @2,75 for reaching Top 15 in the finals.

My favorites for this year's Eurovision are Denmark. Their voice and performance are great, capturing everyone's attention from the first second and keeping it until the end. They should receive a solid amount of votes both from the jury and the audience. The current top competitors among bookmakers are Finland and Greece. Finland is quite a surprise for me. They also have a good voice and show, with the addition of a violin.. but in my opinion, their performance is not at the same level. It's somehow hard to understand why they are such confident favorites. As for Greece, I think they can rely on the support of the audience, but I doubt they will be understood by the jury, and I don't believe they will receive enough votes.

When entering the final, the coefficient should drop. A lot depends on Lion himself, as his performance and song have a lot of potential, but he needs to push himself. The performance stands out among many bad and very bad ones this year. Recently, Lithuania has been gathering quite a decent amount of points, and I hope for at least a 15th place this year.

I think Finland should flop this year. The bookmakers haven't been accurate with the winners in recent years. I don't know who will win, but Finland doesn't seem to be standing out. The song is soft, the violin is pulling, but there's nothing impressive about it that other violinists couldn't do. The performance is half-hearted, but the top 3 doesn't appeal to me.

I believe that Sweden is the dark horse in this year's Eurovision. Sweden always receives high scores, and this year they have sent a song that is more geared towards the youth, but this style of music should ultimately make its way to Eurovision. It stands out among the trash of this year. The visualization, in my opinion, is the best.

I think this guy is great for Europe. Of course, it will be difficult to beat Israel in the Eurovision, but I think this performance will be very popular in the eastern bloc. And a 25 coefficient is definitely worth throwing some euros.

I have already written about Sweden in my other prediction. I think it is very realistic to make it into the top 10. The song should be in the top 10 for both the jury and televote, and that should be enough for the final table. Historically, Sweden receives a lot of points from the jury. Maybe not all juries will give points for this genre, but there will be juries that will appreciate the Swedish quality. I would also say that the song is suitable for televoting because it is an EDM song, a party song that makes people dance. So it will also receive a good amount of votes from the televote.

Places 11-15 would be a great achievement for Lithuania. In the post-Covid Eurovision, Lithuania usually occupies around those places. Last year, we couldn't reach the top 15, only achieving 16th place. I believe Lithuania is a better country than we are credit for and are often overlooked. In the last 2 years, our performances and songs have received a lot of hype, but somehow resulted in underperformance. This year, we are not seen as potential high achievers, but our song and performance have the potential to achieve a decent result.

The song itself is not great, we must admit. But it is suitable for Eurovision performance. Lion himself is artistic, and the stage becomes a theater, making the song more interesting. Plus, the image helps to stand out. Historically, Lithuania does not perform well with juries, but a performance like this could earn us a lot of points.

These are similar arguments as with Bulgaria, only this song has an even weaker potential for the televote. The second semi-final has many strong songs, strong ballads. The ballads will gather the jury's points. This is an energetic, fun performance, personally it doesn't really captivate me. I don't see the jury giving many points to this type of song. If it makes it to the final, it will only be thanks to the televote. But I believe there is no shortage of suitable songs in this genre, for example, Bulgaria, Norway, Cyprus, and all of those songs are better, more memorable.

I'll start with the positives. There will be many ballads in the semi-finals. The song and performance are energetic and that could help it stand out. However, at the same time, most ballads are of a very high level and will gather a lot of points from the jury. Bulgaria will probably not receive many points from the jury and will qualify for the final thanks to the televote. The performer also feels comfortable on stage, moves well, and sings live confidently.

I personally view the song in a negative light. To me, it's a bit of a chaotic mess. It seems like the tempo of the song changes every 20 seconds. The song itself may be listenable, but the chorus, where the word "bangaranga" is repeated, is just grating on the ears. Bulgaria qualifying for the final would not be a surprise, but in my opinion, the song's chances are not very good.

After the commission returns, I believe the Czechs should be drawn much higher in this semifinal. They should also receive audience votes. The song is good, the performer sings beautifully, everything is on point. Difficult notes are hit. There is a poor quality live performance video, which should attract attention because I think the odds have been significantly raised, since there is only an official music video and if the live performance doesn't live up to expectations, it would be a shame.

The Malta coefficient for qualification has recently dropped, so it's worth trying this coefficient. Some ballads might not make it to the final. According to the odds, Latvia has a good chance. I thought maybe Czech Republic might flop, but the artist has a strong vocal and performs well live, so the jury will probably appreciate it. I don't know about the Maltese song, it's average. Historically, people don't vote strongly for Malta. It's a jury song. It will definitely receive points from the jury, but the second semi-final is very strong. There are also many ballads in the second semi-final and most of them are strong. So if Malta doesn't get many televote points, the jury points might not be enough for qualification.

As I believe Lithuania has the potential to reach the top 15, this bet would automatically pass, and there are also variables such as Estonia and Latvia not making it to the final. If Lithuania passes, the bet is won. Latvia is disappointing this year, and Estonia also didn't send anything good.

I would say that Montenegro's song is very forgettable. The singer may not be very charismatic, but last night during the JURY voting, she fell flat. The dancers don't give off a sexy impression, but rather a vulgar one, which could have a negative impact. Montenegro definitely has a weak performance, coming after Finland and could come across as very cheap. There are many Balkan countries, but they will probably split their votes between Greece, Croatia, and possibly Serbia (plus maybe Moldova). Someone needs to break away from the Balkans, and I think that song will be Montenegro's. There aren't many options to challenge them, so I guess it will be either Estonia or Belgium (hopefully not Portugal).