Excluding the last defeat, Heroic seems to be a better team here. Aurora looks more like a mix, and their position 1 player doesn't seem as strong as before. Heroic lineup is not bad, I think their players are somewhat better than Aurora's, and Aurora's form is a big question mark, so I believe Heroic has all the chances to win here.
There is a high chance that Provision will win easily. On the other hand, he rarely returns to games after a difficult start and is generally more inclined to fight against weaker opponents. I think, considering the playing style of both teams, an underdog seems like a very realistic option here.
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