For sure intersting match against these players, but in this case i think we need to choose Marco, who recently performed really well and he also is real clay type player and in this tournament at Rolland Garros he often play superb.
In same time Alex still do not perform well on clay as he was one of the top promising player of Australia on clay, he still did not made success this year. He prefers fast courts.
I choosed Italian who had many problems in tennis, but now he again goes up in rankings, he is showing good shape he reached not long ago a final in Belgrade and he is in fighting shape and matter of question is only how much he have power left? I guess he have a lot atleast for one match.
h2h from last year is really good as Marco won easy against Minaur and situation is quite simillar (Minaur 4/4, Marco 18/11)
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