I'm going with Paul to win at least one set, because I think the American will be a serious challenge to Djokovic. Novak unexpectedly lost a set against Couacaud in this tournament, and although other tennis players failed to do so, I think Paul is the most serious opponent against whom this Serbian will have to play. Paul has an arsenal of very strong shots and a good serve, and here I think he can take at least one set, even in the tiebreak. Djoko had a health problem and although it seems that there are not many of them left, what can provoke it again, and I don't think the pain has disappeared. Djok's confidence and such good play should also drop a bit. A good odds is big when one set is beat by T. Paul
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