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Tennis, Beijing Open. In Rublev's first tournament matches, it takes time for him to get going, and this has been a clear trend since 2022. During this time, as a top seed, Rublev has only won 2-0 in 26 out of 55 ATP tour matches (47%), which is a very low percentage for a player of his caliber. I am choosing Carreno Busta to win the first set, rather than betting on Rublev to win at least one set, because typically, if Rublev loses a set, it is usually the first set - out of 29 matches where he lost at least one set, 25 of them were the first set (86%). Also, Rublev has not played since the US Open, which is almost 4 weeks ago, so he may be coming into this match cold. And considering he also has trouble in the beginning stages of tournaments, I don't think he should be such a clear favorite in the first set. Furthermore, Carreno Busta is slowly returning to his usual level after an injury, and had a good swing in America before the US Open.
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