Djokovic, against Ugo in the second set, seemed to be struggling with breathing and it's understandable. Djokovic's main goals are to prepare for the grand slams, so those are his priorities. I think he will have serious problems today against the talented Musetti, who enjoys playing longer points and this year's Miami tournament seems to be very favorable for him. In the first set, Djokovic may have a head start, but I believe he will have difficulties again in the second set, so betting on not just Musetti winning the second set but also taking a + handicap and +1.5 sets, with a coefficient of around 1.8, seems like a logical choice. I think Lorenzo has a good chance to achieve something in the later stages of the match.
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