The first semi-final is pretty clear for me - 3 countries, Slovenia, San Marino and Iceland, are competing for the last spot in the final. I'm trying to predict who won't make it, which increases the chances of winning because there are 2 out of 3 possible outcomes that work in our favor. The chances of the top 9 countries not making it are quite low, maybe only Netherlands or Norway, but even that is very unlikely. And if Netherlands doesn't make it, then the chances are even lower for Slovenia. On the other hand, there's a higher chance for someone from the bottom to surprise us - someone like Portugal with a better stage performance or modern Azerbaijan.
Returning to these three countries, Slovenia has a very unlucky starting position, and it's quite forgettable. After them, Estonia won't make much of an impact. Meanwhile, Iceland will close the show, which gives them a better chance of being memorable, both with their performance and songs. Good luck!
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