I can't seem to figure out this match at all, even though it's just for two sets. Alexandrova has been showing some improvement in recent months, but if there's still something missing for her to win tournaments, her game tends to break down after three or four rounds. Either way, Russia is still unstable, if she easily loses a set 6:1, there's a high chance she'll lose the next one as well.
Bencic has been dealing with health problems this season, but even when she is playing, her immunity as a winner is higher than that of the Russian player. And Belinda is more stable in this aspect, although she often ends up playing three sets with stronger opponents. The H2H on grass between these opponents shows that they have played three times, with Alexandrova currently leading 2:1, and two of those matches were won in three sets. The most recent match was in Germany, where Alexandrova won 6:1; 6:2, which I see as a positive sign as it was her first tournament and Belinda most likely wanted to drop out early from that one.
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