Sabalenka Aryna has been exceptional throughout this season, outperforming her opponents in every aspect. Pegula has also shined since the US Open, having a good season, but it is incomparable. Sabalenka has played in almost all Grand Slam finals this season. Her serve and return are significantly better than Pegula's.
On the other hand, Pegula has played numerous three-set matches recently and may be fatigued, especially since all matches in this tournament are decided by three sets. Last week, she played long matches up until the semifinals, with four consecutive three-set matches.
One disadvantage is that this tournament is not as important for Sabalenka, while Pegula is fighting for a spot in the final tournament. Another disadvantage is that Sabalenka has played four consecutive matches on the same side of the draw, including the US Open this year.
It is up to Sabalenka to determine the outcome of this match, as Pegula will follow her lead.
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