It seems to me that H2H 3:0 in favor of Cirstea is already too much, although they have only played a few matches on clay. To me, their chances are so similar that I don't see any significant difference. Cirstea is already a 35-year-old veteran, while Mertens is only 30 and has a five-year age gap. This is Mertens's second match in the tournament, while it is Cirstea's third, plus their last match with Noskova was a difficult three-set match, and they have added motivation.
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