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Estonia makes it to the final, while Latvia and Lithuania do not make it through. The bet is won. I don't think this scenario is out of the fantasy realm.
Although the Lion's voice is great, the song itself is not clear if it will hook Europe like Lithuania did for us, and the context is different as well. Sometimes these artistic experiments are not understood. Additionally, in the semi-finals, Lithuania does not have its loyal friends: the UK, Ireland, Norway, Latvia. Points for nothing. I see Lithuania's chances of making it to the final as 50/50.
Latvia appears in the second semi-final, where the competition is much tougher than the first, as overall the songs in the second semi-final are better than the first. In the second semi-final, it's clear except for Azerbaijan. All other countries are still fighting for a spot in the final. In the semi-finals, I see Latvia in 8th-12th place.
Meanwhile, Estonia is competing in the weaker first semi-final along with Lithuania. The song is simple and for me, at least, it evokes nostalgia. I would say it should definitely outrank San Marino, Portugal, and Georgia, but who knows beyond that. But the odds are worth paying attention to.
Betsson, Cbet, Casino Admiral @15
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