Maria is one of the most skilled players on grass. Her slice and constant change of pace is very uncomfortable for aggressive opponents. This week she looks great, having defeated strong opponents, including the top seed in the tournament draw.
Ostapenko can beat anyone on her day. But this season she lacks stability, physical form, and consistency.
Maria is also not a favorable match-up for Ostapenko. Maria likes to play short points on grass, coming to the net, her slice stays low. Ostapenko enjoys rhythm, but Maria constantly disrupts it.
Maria has already beaten Ostapenko on grass before, even when Ostapenko's form was much better and her game less erratic. I wouldn't be surprised if she won again this time. But to be safe, I will take the plus handicap.
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