Both head-to-head dominance and form are in Fritz's favor here. Just 3 weeks ago, he confidently defeated Bublik on the grass. Fatigue is also likely to affect Bublik more, as he had two 5-set matches against Kokkinakis and Tiafoe. Fritz should be able to win this in a maximum of 4 sets and avoid the drama of going into a 5th set, especially since the last 5 matches have been in Fritz's favor. Therefore, the handicap between them is significant.
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