Austria 2 league... The hosts are having a decent season and are currently competing for the top awards. Especially considering that they had two draws (0-0) in their last two home matches against St. Polten, today at home against Peru (who are also doing well), there is a high chance that the hosts will come out on top.
Norway. If someone likes the song, that's okay, but I don't understand it. The constant "ya ya ya" is starting to become annoying. The vocals are weak. I doubt the judges will choose this. There are no "neighbors" like Finland, Sweden, Estonia, or even Iceland or the Netherlands. Not even some Polish, Belgian or German contestants in this semi-final. Only Denmark and Latvia (if we can even consider them as "neighbors"). The last number may be a plus, but that's about it.
Otherwise, I'm looking for surprises, which I don't think will be lacking in this semi-final. There are question marks over Malta, Cyprus, Bulgaria, and Albania.
Although Boyer is not a super clay court tennis player, this American still looks decent, and after a solid win against Peru, I believe he will also defeat the French player. L. Lokoli may be a sand court specialist, but his level is quite low and he always struggles in Challenger and ITF levels, which is also reflected in his ranking. Both of these players have had success in this tournament, but the American stands out in terms of skill and I choose him as my pick on clay.
Brazil can play well on the ground, but all of his best results were achieved in the Americas, and we all know that European sand is different. Brazil made it through the first round, but now Denmark looks much stronger. Good form and even the varying surfaces should not pose much of a problem for this tension-filled match between Brazil, who is playing in a European tournament for the first time this year.
Latvia sends a very sincere and beautifully presented ballad. The song is a matter of taste, but for ballad fans, it may be a better choice this year. The vocalist's voice is very good, and the jury should definitely not hesitate to give points. The audience will also find their place. The lack of neighboring countries is the main problem and probably the reason for such a coefficient. Among the top-rated favorites, I see more than one or two countries whose performers have very good vocals, so not just one country from there will attract the viewers, but they all will not. The performance number is convenient after the non-singing acts from Cyprus and Austria.
This bet is based on the fact that the odds are not bad even with adding a handicap and the safety is particularly high. Both teams should score a lot (Avalanche averaging ~3.6), with a lot of shots, xG, and both having weak goalkeepers. Knowing that both teams are attacking and conceding, 6 goals seem safe here.
For now, Medvedev looks very good in this tournament and after a great performance against Tirante, I hope to see another solid performance against the Spaniard. Landaluce does not have a strong or good serve, and Daniil will be able to take advantage of that. The Spaniard cannot play consistently well, and Martin also had luck with very favorable opponents, so I predict a confident win for Medvedev in this match.
At the next level there is Jodar, who I believe will be a top 5-8 tennis player in the near future. Especially on the ground, he is an unbelievably good player who will soon be able to compete with both Alcaraz and Sinner. Darderi has gone far, but a lot of the game depends on serving, and Jodar's reception is very good and I think it is very logical for him to be in the top.
The last two teams in the league have the worst offense in the league. In 6 league matches, the teams have only scored 6 and 5 goals each. Their defense is very poor and it's no surprise that they are at the bottom of the league, but I don't think we can expect many goals between these two teams. League newcomers Ljungskile have only had one match with a score as low as this, so the chances for under are high. Sundsvall, who are visiting, have let in a lot of goals, but when their opponents have limited attacking capabilities, we shouldn't expect many goals.
The Landspokal Cup final, in which the Copenhagen team not only has an advantage, but also must win in order to secure their place in the next season's European league. Despite performing well in the Champions League, Copenhagen surprisingly struggled in the Danish league at that time and are currently fighting for 7th place and a chance to play in the Conference League. The final is being played in Copenhagen's home arena and knowing their team's capabilities and motivation, they are clearly the favored choice for this match.
France once again sent a top-level performance this year. The country is already prepared to win. I believe this is a good choice. The biggest favorites are considered to be Finland, Denmark, Greece, Israel, Australia, and France.
I don't think Greece has much of a chance with their performance, even though such songs often receive a lot of attention, they usually don't end up in top positions.
If Israel were to win, it would definitely shock Eurovision. Although their performance is good, it is difficult to attract the attention of the audience and there are also political aspects to consider.
Australia sent a strong performance and will likely receive many jury votes, but it may not connect with the audience.
That leaves Finland, France, and Denmark. I think Finland is overrated this year and may end up around 4-7th place. I have nothing bad to say about Denmark and I believe they truly deserve to be considered one of the favorites. And finally, there is France, with odds as high as 15. It is unlikely that any other country from this top six will surpass them, maybe Romania, but not for first place.
Overall, I believe France is underrated this year and has a higher chance of winning than 6%.
The second semi-final is much stronger than the first, I don't see anything that could attract the audience in this performance in Cyprus, let alone the jury, unless the sound of a gypsy song could gather some votes from Romania and Bulgaria, as Greece will not have anyone voting for Cyprus. There are many stronger countries that deserve to advance. Unfortunately, Cyprus did not make it to the final.
The city is fighting for the title, but for now everything is in Arsenal's hands. However, the pressure on Arsenal to play at an equal level will not be stopped by City's 1-0 lead. Palace is dancing across the league, they are safe + waiting for the 2nd place in the Conference final. In their encounters, these two teams constantly lead to very beautiful matches, even 10 out of the last 11 ended with 4+ goals.
Serbia is my dark horse of the year. It will be the only heavy metal performance in Eurovision. This mystical performer attracts attention and roars as needed. I believe he will find my voter among the audience. Hopefully, the judging committee will also give some votes. Furthermore, I think Balkan neighbors will support each other as always. A good option is admiral casino @2,75 for reaching Top 15 in the finals.
After the commission returns, I believe the Czechs should be drawn much higher in this semifinal. They should also receive audience votes. The song is good, the performer sings beautifully, everything is on point. Difficult notes are hit. There is a poor quality live performance video, which should attract attention because I think the odds have been significantly raised, since there is only an official music video and if the live performance doesn't live up to expectations, it would be a shame.
I think Finland should flop this year. The bookmakers haven't been accurate with the winners in recent years. I don't know who will win, but Finland doesn't seem to be standing out. The song is soft, the violin is pulling, but there's nothing impressive about it that other violinists couldn't do. The performance is half-hearted, but the top 3 doesn't appeal to me.
When entering the final, the coefficient should drop. A lot depends on Lion himself, as his performance and song have a lot of potential, but he needs to push himself. The performance stands out among many bad and very bad ones this year. Recently, Lithuania has been gathering quite a decent amount of points, and I hope for at least a 15th place this year.
My favorites for this year's Eurovision are Denmark. Their voice and performance are great, capturing everyone's attention from the first second and keeping it until the end. They should receive a solid amount of votes both from the jury and the audience. The current top competitors among bookmakers are Finland and Greece. Finland is quite a surprise for me. They also have a good voice and show, with the addition of a violin.. but in my opinion, their performance is not at the same level. It's somehow hard to understand why they are such confident favorites. As for Greece, I think they can rely on the support of the audience, but I doubt they will be understood by the jury, and I don't believe they will receive enough votes.
These are similar arguments as with Bulgaria, only this song has an even weaker potential for the televote. The second semi-final has many strong songs, strong ballads. The ballads will gather the jury's points. This is an energetic, fun performance, personally it doesn't really captivate me. I don't see the jury giving many points to this type of song. If it makes it to the final, it will only be thanks to the televote. But I believe there is no shortage of suitable songs in this genre, for example, Bulgaria, Norway, Cyprus, and all of those songs are better, more memorable.
A difficult to predict series, but I still believe in the magic of the chieftain and that he will be able to lead the team to the final4. However, the experience in such situations, the players' mastery is crucial, and I believe that the coach's fate will be decided. If we lose, I think it will mean dismissal for the chieftain after the season. Otherwise, it is hard to imagine that such achievements would satisfy a team with such a budget.
I think this guy is great for Europe. Of course, it will be difficult to beat Israel in the Eurovision, but I think this performance will be very popular in the eastern bloc. And a 25 coefficient is definitely worth throwing some euros.
The Malta coefficient for qualification has recently dropped, so it's worth trying this coefficient. Some ballads might not make it to the final. According to the odds, Latvia has a good chance. I thought maybe Czech Republic might flop, but the artist has a strong vocal and performs well live, so the jury will probably appreciate it. I don't know about the Maltese song, it's average. Historically, people don't vote strongly for Malta. It's a jury song. It will definitely receive points from the jury, but the second semi-final is very strong. There are also many ballads in the second semi-final and most of them are strong. So if Malta doesn't get many televote points, the jury points might not be enough for qualification.
I believe that Sweden is the dark horse in this year's Eurovision. Sweden always receives high scores, and this year they have sent a song that is more geared towards the youth, but this style of music should ultimately make its way to Eurovision. It stands out among the trash of this year. The visualization, in my opinion, is the best.
I'll start with the positives. There will be many ballads in the semi-finals. The song and performance are energetic and that could help it stand out. However, at the same time, most ballads are of a very high level and will gather a lot of points from the jury. Bulgaria will probably not receive many points from the jury and will qualify for the final thanks to the televote. The performer also feels comfortable on stage, moves well, and sings live confidently.
I personally view the song in a negative light. To me, it's a bit of a chaotic mess. It seems like the tempo of the song changes every 20 seconds. The song itself may be listenable, but the chorus, where the word "bangaranga" is repeated, is just grating on the ears. Bulgaria qualifying for the final would not be a surprise, but in my opinion, the song's chances are not very good.
Places 11-15 would be a great achievement for Lithuania. In the post-Covid Eurovision, Lithuania usually occupies around those places. Last year, we couldn't reach the top 15, only achieving 16th place. I believe Lithuania is a better country than we are credit for and are often overlooked. In the last 2 years, our performances and songs have received a lot of hype, but somehow resulted in underperformance. This year, we are not seen as potential high achievers, but our song and performance have the potential to achieve a decent result.
The song itself is not great, we must admit. But it is suitable for Eurovision performance. Lion himself is artistic, and the stage becomes a theater, making the song more interesting. Plus, the image helps to stand out. Historically, Lithuania does not perform well with juries, but a performance like this could earn us a lot of points.
I have already written about Sweden in my other prediction. I think it is very realistic to make it into the top 10. The song should be in the top 10 for both the jury and televote, and that should be enough for the final table. Historically, Sweden receives a lot of points from the jury. Maybe not all juries will give points for this genre, but there will be juries that will appreciate the Swedish quality. I would also say that the song is suitable for televoting because it is an EDM song, a party song that makes people dance. So it will also receive a good amount of votes from the televote.
If I had to pick a winner right now, I would probably choose Denmark. There isn't a clear favorite yet. Finland is currently in the lead, but not quite convincingly and personally I don't see them winning at the moment. The contest is still about a month and a half away, so the odds will continue to change.
From what I've heard, Denmark just gives off 'winner vibes'. Their performance is good, engaging, polished, and Eurovision-ready. I don't think there is much to change before the big Eurovision. The performer has a strong, confident vocal. The last minute is more energetic and well-staged, which allows for a more memorable performance at Eurovision.
For three consecutive years, the favorite song of the audience ranked very close to Peru and took 2nd or 3rd place:
2023 - Käärijä
2024 - Baby Lasagna
2025 - Tommy Cash
This year, the most joyful and possibly the audience's favorite song could be Greece. I don't know if this year's Greek song will be as successful as the ones mentioned, but it definitely has potential. The song is truly unique. As a plus, I see that this year there are more countries supporting Greece as usual in Eurovision. Romania and Bulgaria have returned. However, the number of countries from the Balkan region has decreased. This year, Iceland, Ireland, and the Netherlands are not participating.
A little drop was observed in Fenerbahce's stock after their defeat to Olympiacos, but to me it doesn't seem like a tragedy, rather an opportunity. Such losses are very likely and should only strengthen Fenerbahce as the season comes to an end. The team is trained by possibly the best coach in Europe, so I can't imagine the final four without Fenerbahce. Of course, the finals will take place in Greece and it won't be easy, but in the end, everything depends on my assumption that Fenerbahce has over 20% chance of winning the Euroleague.
St.Polten @1.380 8/10
Under (Nepateks į finalą) @2.300 7/10
(Games -3.5 Daniil Medvedev) @1.833 8/10
(Under 2.5) @1.900 8/10
Over (4.0) @2.810 8/10
(TOP 10 Finale) @7.000 4/10
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