The top 4 race in the Serie A continues and we have two sides fighting for it face off as Lazio host Atalanta.
Currently, looking at the table there are 5 teams still fighting for top 4. Atalanta are currently 4th while Lazio are 8th however the clubs are separated by just 4 points and the gap could be cut to 1 if Lazio win. This really is a must win match for the hosts as otherwise they’re going to likely be out of this race given there’s just 4 games to go, whereas Atalanta can still afford a draw though at this point it’s best to just win and keep hold of 4th considering how close Roma, Milan, Torino and Lazio are to them.
Form wise, Lazio have been inconsistent really throughout the whole of 2019. Not so long ago they went through a stretch they lost 3 of 5 games, but have bounced back from that and are entering this weekend on two very impressive back to back away wins at Milan 0-1 and Sampdoria last week 1-2 so at the moment they are playing well but there always is that worry on what Lazio will turn up due to their inconsistency.
Atalanta are on great form at the moment. They are unbeaten in 11 straight games across all competitions and have won each of their last 3 bagging an away win at Napoli, beating Fiorentina to reach Coppa Italia Final and beating Udinese 2-0 last week to get into the top 4. Atalanta have been known for their explosive attack play this year, but recently they have also been very good defensively conceding just 2 goals and keeping 3 clean sheets in last 5 games.
Lazio are a decent home side, though nothing special and have shown a tendency to drop points as they won 9 of 17 games drawing 4 and losing 4 which is total 20 pts dropped already. Lazio have been a better goal scoring side at home with 32 goals scored compared to 17 away from home, but defensively they’re pretty similar conceding 19 to 17 away from home. Most of Lazio’s dropped points at home have come to the top 7 sides though as they have lost to Napoli, Juventus, Inter while drawing with AC Milan and Torino. The lone win coming against Roma. Only 1 win from 6 against the top 7 and just 5 points picked up from 18 does show that Lazio have struggled in big home games which is for sure a concern entering this week. 13 of Lazio’s 20 dropped pts at home have come against the top 7.
Atalanta have been a fantastic away side in the league this season with the 3rd best away record (9W 3D 5L) and have more away points with 30 than they have at home with 29 plus they are the highest scoring away side this season with 37 goals. Furthermore, Atalanta’s recent away form has especially been great as they’ve lost just 1 of last 8 on their travels winning 5 of those. Atalanta have also been a good away side in big grounds as they’ve picked up draws at Inter, Milan and Roma, they beat Napoli with the lone defeat coming to Torino when it comes playing the Top 7. They only won one game but at the same time lost just once in big away games while drawing 3 which is a decent record for sure.
Ciro Immobile is the man to watch for Lazio. He’s been in a goal drought having gone scoreless in 5 straight but he still is the clubs top scorer with 14 goals and he has 5 assists and we anticipate him to eventually come through with a big performance. Felipe Caicedo is another player to watch as he’s been in scorching hot form having scored 4 goals in last 4 apps including bagging a brace last week at Sampdoria.
Duvan Zapata is the man to watch for Atalanta. He’s the top scorer for the club with 21 goals which is 3rd most in the Serie A and he also has 7 assists. He’s been very good in big games scoring against the likes of Napoli, Juventus, Roma scoring against all of those teams and he got on the scoresheet against Lazio in the reverse fixture.
Atalanta won the reverse fixture between these sides 1-0 at home thanks to a Duvan Zapata goal.
Lazio have dominated Atalanta in recent meetings at home having gone unbeaten in 4 straight against them winning 3 of those games though the last meeting here did end with a 1-1 draw last season.
Lazio are favoured to win this game by the bookies at 2.23 whereas Atalanta to win is 3.05 with Draw offered 3.65. This is a contest between two evenly matched sides and it could go either way. Expect a very intense, tight contest here. The odds are based on Unibet.
Team News
Lazio: Jordan Lukaku continues to be out while Valon Berisha, Romulo and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic are all questionable.
Atalanta: Rafael Toloi and Marco Varnier are listed as doubtful and could miss out. Otherwise the visitors are at full strength.
Betting Stats
Lazio have covered 58.8% of their total goal overs at home in the league this season (10-1-6).
Lazio have covered 41.2% of their total 1st half goal overs at home in the league this season (7-2-8).
Lazio average 2.23 bookings per game at home in the league this season (38 bookings in 17 games).
Ciro Immobile is Lazio’s top scorer in the league at home with 9 home league goals this season.
Lazio have covered 41.2% of their Handicaps at home in the league this season (7-10).
Lazio have covered 52.9% of their 1st half Handicaps at home in the league this season (9-2-6).
Atalanta have covered 64.7% of their total goal overs away from home in the league this season (11-1-5) which is tied 2nd best in Serie A.
Atalanta have covered 41.2% of their total 1st half goal overs away from home in the league this season (7-4-6).
Atalanta average 2.06 bookings per game away from home in the league this season (35 bookings in 17 games).
Duvan Zapata is Atalanta’s top scorer away from home with 14 away league goals this season which is also the best record in the Serie A as a whole.
Atalanta have covered 70.6% of their Handicaps away from home in the league this season (12-5) which is the best percentage in the Serie A.
Atalanta have covered 29.4% of their 1st half Handicaps away from home in the league this season (5-3-9) which is tied 2nd worst in Serie A. Miles better 2nd half team on their travels.
KICK OFF – 5th May 2019 – 2pm UK Time
