The UEFA Nations League is back and we have a very important match in group 3 as Poland take on Portugal. Poland are currently 2nd in group having drawn their only game away at Italy while Portugal are top of the group having beaten Italy. A win for Portugal could put them 5 points clear from the rest, a win for Poland would put them top of the group. This is a very big match for both sides and it could decide a lot in group 3 of UEFA Nations League!
Key Facts
Poland are unbeaten in a competitive home match in over 5 years. Last loss coming in March 2013 to Ukraine in 2014 World Cup qualifiers. Unbeaten in 22 straight competitive home games.
Robert Lewandowski has scored 16 goals in his last 14 competitive matches for Poland. However he’s currently on a 4 game goal drought in competitive international football.
12 of Poland’s last 14 competitive matches had over 2.5 goals.
The last time that Poland and Portugal met was in Euro 2016 where they drew 1-1 and Portugal won on penalties.
The last 3 meetings between these nations ended in a draw after 90 minutes.
Including friendlies, since 2015 Poland have played 6 teams that are in UEFA Nations League 1 and have not won any of those in 90 minutes. 4D 2L.
With Ronaldo out, Portugal will be relying on their striker Andre Silva who is currently playing some of the best football of his career having scored 7 goals in 8 league games already for his club. He’s scored 10 goals in his last 15 competitive matches for Portugal and has already scored in the Nations League.
Since the start of the Euros in 2016, Portugal have only lost 2 competitive matches in 90 minutes. 12W 8D 2L
Including friendlies, in their last 12 matches against League A opponent Portugal have a record of 3W 6D 3L in 90 minutes. They’ve won 3 of those drawn matches after ET/Penalties.
Portugal have had 9 under 2.5 goal games in their last 14 competitive matches (Since the start of Confed Cup 2017). Only 5 overs
Team News
Poland: We should be expecting most main players to feature for Poland in this match those included being Lewandowski, Krychowiak, Glik, Szczesny etc. Lewandowski will likely make his 100th cap for his country which for sure is an achievement to celebrate. However, Lewandowski isn’t the most in form Polish striker right now, it actually is the Serie A top scorer Krzysztof Piatek who has been absolutely on fire for Genoa and he’ll be pushing for Lewandowski’s starting spot. Now despite that, Lewandowski is still the 1st choice striker, but if he fails to impress, don’t rule out Piatek coming on for him during the match sometime down the line.
Portugal: We already mentioned that Cristiano Ronaldo is out for Portugal yet again and they’ll be relying on other to do the job. Now in the opening game, Portugal did the job beating Italy 1-0 without Ronaldo, but this will be an even bigger test considering they’re away to a team who are unbeaten in 22 competitive home games in a row. Portugal will also be without Goncalo Guedes who is out with an injury. Now, the players that we can expect to see here are Man City’s star Bernardo Silva who is probably going to be the key in all Portuguese attacks, another player to watch out for is Ruben Neves who has been playing well for Wolves again this season and of course the main man to watch out for is Andre Silva as his current goal scoring form is really good. Defensively, expect this team to be strong as usual led by veteran Pepe and goalkeeper Rui Patricio.
Betting Tips and Predictions
In this match we have Portugal as tipped slight favourites at 2.65 to Poland’s 2.85. However we’re not going to back a winner in this match. This game has draw written all over it. Portugal have drawn a lot of their matches against league A level opposition in their last 12 after 90 minutes (6). That’s half of the games! Poland themselves have drawn 4 of their last 6 against league A opposition. At home Poland haven’t lost in 5 years competitively while Portugal as a whole lose often at all (2 in last 22 competitive matches). This is one of those games where we can see a tactical battle between two very tough sides. Missing Ronaldo could prove to be the missing piece for Portugal in this match as he normally would be the one to drag his nation to wins in these sorts of games. Plus the recent history between Poland and Portugal tells us that this should be a draw. We believe that Portugal would be happy with a draw considering they’d stay top so backing a draw at 3.10 is our selection. We expect this to be a 1-1 draw, this will also more than likely be an under 2.5 goal game. Also, this is one of those games where we can expect cards to be shown considering the importance of this game and the fact that there’s a few hot heads involved in this, including Pepe.
Match Odds (TonyBet)
Poland Win – 2.85
Draw – 3.10
Portugal Win – 2.65
KICK OFF – 11th October 2018 – 7:45pm UK Time
