kennex
1205
2012/11/05 11:46
#297194
Manne wrote:
America's bewildering gambling rules mean that no official betting on the outcome of the election is allowed in the gambling mecca of Nevada or anywhere else in the US for that matter.
So when marketing manager John W. wanted to have a little flutter on the biggest race of the last four years, he was forced to go to an online betting site to place his 100-dollar-bet on Barack Obama.
"I like to gamble on sports results and I usually do pretty well, because I follow the statistics and trends and keep my emotions out of it," he said, asking that his full name not be used because of the technical illegality of his election gamble.
"I took the same approach with the election. I am sure Obama will win because he has managed to hold onto his majority in the battleground states. It's easy money as far as I'm concerned."
Others resorted to personal bets, which are allowed under the law. The most famous exponent is US President Barack Obama's senior political advisor David Axelrod. He bet conservative news anchor Joe Scarborough that he would shave off his bushy mustache if Obama loses the states of Minnesota, Michigan or Pennsylvania on Election Day.
"I will come on 'Morning Joe' and I will shave off my mustache of 40 years if we lose any of those three states," Axelrod said. Scarborough also has a stake in the game. He promised to grow a mustache if Obama wins Florida or North Carolina.
New York Times pollster Nate Silver, whose nuanced analysis of individual state voting trends has led him to favour Obama's chances far more highly than all the national polls indicate, also wants to get in the game. He rated Obama's chances of victory at 79 per cent on Thursday, and was willing to wager Scarborough that he was right.
"If you think it's a toss-up let's bet," he tweeted the news anchor. "If Obama wins, you donate 1,000 dollars to the American Red Cross. If Romney wins, I do. Deal?"
Silver's scientific analysis is bolstered by online betting houses, all of which view Obama as a strong favourite to win reelection, with Romney cast in the role of the overwhelming underdog.
Most online betting shops were offering odds Thursday of 1:4 on an Obama victory, meaning that a four-dollar bet on an Obama victory would yield just one dollar in winnings. By contrast the odds for a Romney win were 11:4, giving winning punters an 11-dollar payout on a four-dollar bet. Intrade-com, in which punters buy shares in real world outcomes based on their probability, priced Obama's chances of victory at almost 70 per cent.
Leighton Vaughan Williams, the Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School in Nottingham, England, says his research has shown that gamblers are better predictors of elections than pollsters. This is because the average voter doesn't have any incentive to tell a pollster the truth about their voting habits, but when they are betting their own money they will tend to think hard about the choices they make using the best information available to them.
Williams expects about 100 million dollars to be bet on the outcome of the election, and in a blog posting this week argued that the betting markets were actually too conservative in assessing Obama's reelection chances.
Nevertheless he advised caution before wagering hard-won wages on Tuesday's election results.
"Polls don't decide elections, however, and neither do the betting markets," he advised. "People do, and that's why anything can happen, and sometimes does."
Online Gamblers Bet on Obama Victory - HispanicBusiness-com
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The absence of harmonised legislation in this sector has led to a number of rulings of the Court of Justice of the European Union as well as to several infringement procedures against member states. The court has confirmed that the provision and use of cross-border gambling is an economic activity and hence member states must ensure that they do not hinder online gambling service providers from offering their services to recipients in any member state in breach of the fundamental freedom to provide services. National rules which prohibit the provision of gambling services authorised in other member states were often found by the court to restrict the freedom of national residents to receive, over the internet, services offered in other member states. They were also found to restrict the freedom of operators established in other member states to provide gambling services.
Both industry and policymakers have long insisted about the need of some form of legislative harmonisation in this field. In response to this, the Commission has now set out a number of initiatives which it intends to take in an attempt at clarifying the regulation of this sector.
The Commission seems to be determined to make use of the knowledge garnered from previous consultations with stakeholders and the latest case law of the CJEU, to take action to ensure that the policies adopted by the individual member states are in full compliance with EU law. Member states must be able to demonstrate that the public interest objectives which they adopt such as the prevention of problem gambling and the protection of minors are pursued in a suitable, consistent and systematic manner.
The Commission has declared that it will be sending out requests for information to the member states against whom infringement cases have been open since 2008 to get a complete update about the latest developments in national legislation. Information will also be requested from those member states against whom complaints have been registered.
The facilitation of administrative cooperation between gambling regulators is also on the Commission’s agenda as is the protection of consumers. The Commission has expressed its intention to adopt recommendations for member states on the common protection of consumers as well as responsible gambling advertising. It also believes that a common set of principles elaborated at EU level should ensure a high level of consumer protection. These principles would tackle issues such as the effective and efficient registration of players, age verification and identification controls, reality checks, no credit policy, protection of player funds, self-restriction possibilities as well as customer support and efficient handling of complaints.
Another important objective defined by the Commission in its action plan, is the prevention of fraud and money-laundering in this sector. The Commission seems to be inclined towards extending the scope of the current EU law regulating money laundering to all forms of gambling. It is also exploring the possibility of an EU standard on gambling equipment including gambling software.
The Commission has also noted that more in-depth cooperation between betting operators, sports bodies and national authorities is needed to eradicate betting-related match-fixing. From its end, the Commission intends to adopt a recommendation on best practices for the prevention and combating of betting-related match-fixing. It intends to promote faster information exchange between the relevant authorities, whistle-blowing mechanisms, and overall cooperation at national and international level between stakeholders, operators, and regulators to preserve the integrity of sports. The better education and increased awareness of sportspeople has also been identified as an indispensable tool in eradicating this phenomena.
The Commission has announced that two years from now, it will evaluate the implementation of the action plan and assess progress achieved in order to ascertain whether more concrete action is required.
Online gambling is one of the fastest growing service activities in the EU, with annual growth rates of almost 15 per cent. Statistics show that 6.8 million consumers participate in one type or more of online gambling services. In the absence of harmonised legislation regulating this sector and in view of the divergent policies adopted by the different member states, the need for legal certainty has long been felt by service providers seeking to offer cross-border services. While not offering complete legal certainty, this action plan could be seen as a step in the right direction in the regulation of this delicate market wherein both the interests of the operators and those of the consumers need to be balanced out.
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