madjek
143
2010/01/20 21:46
#274154
tallseas wrote:
If there is one thing experience has taught me, it is you cannot push a flush draw out of a pot no matter how much you try. I once watched Mike the Mouth drop 4k in one hand on a flush draw. The reason is simple..odds. Any flush draw gives you 9 outs. That by itself is 36%+ after the flop. If you have paired a card as well its almost a coin flip and if you paired a card and you have an Ace it is a coin flip. So, knowing this, if you try and push you actual make it worth chasing for the pot odds. You are ahead and should bet but shoving all in is ill advised. Knowing your opponent helps in these situations but the poker community has grown so large keeping notes on players becomes a never ending task and by the time you meet that same guy on a table again 9 months later, he plays altogether differently. The straight draw has almost as good of odds as the flush draw and you will encounter it more frequently. Although the odds are less they will hit it, the odds you will encouter it are better. It is better to check the flop and bet the turn if it misses him. your Odds double after he misses the turn. He will be less than 25% to win and you can sometimes push them out at the turn. Sometimes. At least your hand has a much better chance of holding up if he does call.
The BIG question here is what to do with "the gambler". You are ahead but he pushes with the flush draw. He knows he has a coin flip, or close to, it and he's feeling lucky. Well that is a problem. I guess it all depends on wether or not you can "afford" to call. If your in a tourney and its early and your not 'pot committed' (a term I don't like cause your never committed in my opinion) you can "afford" to fold. Folding the best hand is sometimes hard but, the right thing to do in certain situations. After all the goal is to survive not double up. If in a cash game you have a little more to consider. If you are playing the right stakes for your bankroll you should be able to call him and if you lose you reload and hammer him the next time cause he ain't going to win all of them. The key here is playing the right stakes for your bankroll. Be real careful on chosing a table in cash games. You going to have a hard time making the correct call on a .5-.10 table if two guys are sitting on $50.00-$100.00 stacks. Add up the total of money on the table and compare it to your bankroll before testing those waters. Keeping it at less than 10% will keep you out of trouble.
Hope this helps.
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