Manne
29893
2015/09/08 12:05
#316078
Manne wrote:
1. American Pharoah - Despite the upset in the Travers, I have no choice to rate this one at the top spot for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I simply believe that he is the best horse, and the Travers did not change my mind. As I’ve noted before, I think he ran a very good race at Saratoga under adverse conditions. Whether he gets in a prep in between or not, I am expecting that he will arrive at Keeneland ready to run his best, and his final career race should give him every opportunity to prove his greatness once and for all. Running against older horses for the first time, and against a field of this quality, facing a strong early pace, and after a tough race in the Travers, all make this assignment clearly his toughest one to date. If he can check all the boxes and come out triumphant here, it will be the performance that proves our first Triple Crown winner in 37 years is truly a horse that deserves to be remembered for all time.
2. Beholder - Look out boys, this mare is the genuine article. Of course, we knew that all along, but the two-time champion has taken things to a whole new exciting level of late. They say thoroughbred horses do not reach full athletic maturity until they hit the age of five, and Beholder looks to be proving that theory to be true, and as good as she was in the first three seasons of her career, that is a scary proposition for her connections. Beholder will need to prove that she can win one outside of California, as well as the not so small task of handling a field infinitely tougher than she saw at Del Mar, but off of her stellar performance in the ten furlong Pacific Classic, it is fair to wonder if all she will need to do is repeat that performance to walk away with the biggest prize in her excellent career.
3. Honor Code - So they say he is prepping for the Classic in the one-mile Kelso rather than the ten furlong Jockey Club Gold Cup. I don’t presume to know a fraction of what the Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey knows about his horses, but I must admit to being a bit surprised by this choice. It seems getting in a strong prep at the distance would give him the foundation to have his rally strongest at Keeneland. Even if he was defeated in the Jockey Club, I think it would do him plenty of good for a Classic run. It certainly did just that for his sire, A.P. Indy back in 1992. Having said that, the Kelso should bring him to Kentucky a sharp horse, and if the expected fast fractions materialize on October 31, you have to respect the Met Mile and Whitney winner’s ability to pick them up and lay them down in the stretch.
4. Tonalist - It seems like a long time since the 2014 Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner actually won a race, but remember he did win the Westchester back on Kentucky Derby day. Despite his current three-race losing streak since, the son of Tapit continues to run well. Perhaps he is just laying in the weeds ready to pounce in the right spot; and you know what? This year’s Classic could be just that spot. He should get plenty of early pace to run at, and unlike the one just above him, Tonalist is certainly proven at the distance. If America’s richest race does indeed set things up for the late runners, Honor Code may have a very tough time running by this one at the extended distance of ten furlongs.
5. Liam’s Map - With both of the top two breathing down his neck early, the Breeders’ Cup Classic would not seem to be an easy spot for this speedy son of Unbridled’s Song, but considering how fantastic he ran in consecutive Grade 1 races this summer at the Spa, it would be hard for his connections to pass on this spot. Sure, he would likely be the one to beat in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, but I believe that his Whitney and Woodward prove that he can run with anyone right now. Love his chances or not in the Classic, at the very least, he should force the hand of American Pharoah and Beholder at some point in the race, because quality speed like that of Liam’s Map needs to be respected.
6. Keen Ice - Beware the late developing colt. This strapping son of Curlin always had a strong late run, but never seemed to get there. His third in the Belmont, and second in the Haskell were steps in the right direction, and sure enough, he put it all together on the big stage of the Travers. He was benefited by grueling middle fractions which saw Frosted turn the screws on American Pharoah, but in the Classic, he could benefit from the same advantageous softening up of the leaders. There are a few late runners that I still like a bit better, but Keen Ice, proven at the distance and on the improve, could be a dangerous horse to take for granted once again.
7. Frosted - I cannot help but to like this good looking, gray son of Tapit. Since his sharp win in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, he has run four very good races, only to fall short of victory each time. Of course, much of that can be directly attributed to the presence of one American Pharoah. Frosted has shown the ability to run his race a variety of different ways, and that could come in handy in the big race. I realize that he is not the most likely winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but you never know. He is all quality, and maybe now, without having to be the one to pressure American Pharoah early, he can sit a comfortable middle of the pack trip, and be able to pounce at the right time.
8. Gleneagles - It seems strange to me to have such a wonderful horse, from such solid connections, this low on the list. Gleneagles is pure class. The top juvenile in Europe last year, he is undefeated against Group 1 competition this year. Other horses like this have come over and run very well in the Classic before, but in my mind, he has three big factors going against him in the 2015 edition. Unlike the Raven’s Pass, Henrythenavigator year, this Breeders’ Cup Classic is run on dirt. Gleneagles has never run on
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2. Beholder - Look out boys, this mare is the genuine article. Of course, we knew that all along, but the two-time champion has taken things to a whole new exciting level of late. They say thoroughbred horses do not reach full athletic maturity until they hit the age of five, and Beholder looks to be proving that theory to be true, and as good as she was in the first three seasons of her career, that is a scary proposition for her connections. Beholder will need to prove that she can win one outside of California, as well as the not so small task of handling a field infinitely tougher than she saw at Del Mar, but off of her stellar performance in the ten furlong Pacific Classic, it is fair to wonder if all she will need to do is repeat that performance to walk away with the biggest prize in her excellent career.
3. Honor Code - So they say he is prepping for the Classic in the one-mile Kelso rather than the ten furlong Jockey Club Gold Cup. I don’t presume to know a fraction of what the Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey knows about his horses, but I must admit to being a bit surprised by this choice. It seems getting in a strong prep at the distance would give him the foundation to have his rally strongest at Keeneland. Even if he was defeated in the Jockey Club, I think it would do him plenty of good for a Classic run. It certainly did just that for his sire, A.P. Indy back in 1992. Having said that, the Kelso should bring him to Kentucky a sharp horse, and if the expected fast fractions materialize on October 31, you have to respect the Met Mile and Whitney winner’s ability to pick them up and lay them down in the stretch.
4. Tonalist - It seems like a long time since the 2014 Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner actually won a race, but remember he did win the Westchester back on Kentucky Derby day. Despite his current three-race losing streak since, the son of Tapit continues to run well. Perhaps he is just laying in the weeds ready to pounce in the right spot; and you know what? This year’s Classic could be just that spot. He should get plenty of early pace to run at, and unlike the one just above him, Tonalist is certainly proven at the distance. If America’s richest race does indeed set things up for the late runners, Honor Code may have a very tough time running by this one at the extended distance of ten furlongs.
5. Liam’s Map - With both of the top two breathing down his neck early, the Breeders’ Cup Classic would not seem to be an easy spot for this speedy son of Unbridled’s Song, but considering how fantastic he ran in consecutive Grade 1 races this summer at the Spa, it would be hard for his connections to pass on this spot. Sure, he would likely be the one to beat in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, but I believe that his Whitney and Woodward prove that he can run with anyone right now. Love his chances or not in the Classic, at the very least, he should force the hand of American Pharoah and Beholder at some point in the race, because quality speed like that of Liam’s Map needs to be respected.
6. Keen Ice - Beware the late developing colt. This strapping son of Curlin always had a strong late run, but never seemed to get there. His third in the Belmont, and second in the Haskell were steps in the right direction, and sure enough, he put it all together on the big stage of the Travers. He was benefited by grueling middle fractions which saw Frosted turn the screws on American Pharoah, but in the Classic, he could benefit from the same advantageous softening up of the leaders. There are a few late runners that I still like a bit better, but Keen Ice, proven at the distance and on the improve, could be a dangerous horse to take for granted once again.
7. Frosted - I cannot help but to like this good looking, gray son of Tapit. Since his sharp win in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, he has run four very good races, only to fall short of victory each time. Of course, much of that can be directly attributed to the presence of one American Pharoah. Frosted has shown the ability to run his race a variety of different ways, and that could come in handy in the big race. I realize that he is not the most likely winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but you never know. He is all quality, and maybe now, without having to be the one to pressure American Pharoah early, he can sit a comfortable middle of the pack trip, and be able to pounce at the right time.
8. Gleneagles - It seems strange to me to have such a wonderful horse, from such solid connections, this low on the list. Gleneagles is pure class. The top juvenile in Europe last year, he is undefeated against Group 1 competition this year. Other horses like this have come over and run very well in the Classic before, but in my mind, he has three big factors going against him in the 2015 edition. Unlike the Raven’s Pass, Henrythenavigator year, this Breeders’ Cup Classic is run on dirt. Gleneagles has never run on