As if things didn’t look bad enough already for the 2012 New York Mets, now comes word that the team isn’t very confident that ace left-hander Johan Santana will be ready for the start of next season.
Santana missed all of last season after having surgery in September 2010 to repair a torn capsule in his left shoulder. Originally the Mets hoped he would pitch in the second half of last season, but he had one bad break after another and ended making only one minor-league start before being shut down following another setback.
“We do have some question marks, of course, with Santana being one of them,” general manager Sandy Alderson said this week. “We think he’s going to be ready, but he might not be.”
This is the last thing the Mets need. They already lost face of the franchise Jose Reyes to free agency this offseason. And the team is massively cutting payroll with ownership still reeling from the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme. In fact, the club just got what was essentially an emergency $40 million loan from Bank of America. The Mets reportedly lost $70 million last season.
Santana, who went 11-9 with a 2.98 ERA in 2010, is owed a whopping $50 million over the next two years. And he’s obviously untradeable at this point. Thus his contract will weigh this team down for at least that long. His contract also includes a $25 million team option for the 2014 season (with a $5.5 million buyout). The two-time AL Cy Young award winner with the Minnesota Twins will turn 33 in March.
The Mets are currently 50/1 on Bovada’s MLB futures to win the 2012 World Series, but it’s more likely this will be the worst team in the National League.
Alex Rodriguez recently traveled to Germany for an experimental treatment on his troublesome right knee, the New York Post reported on Wednesday.
According to the newspaper, citing multiple sources, the Yankees third baseman followed a recommendation from Los Angeles Lakers star Kobe Bryant and pursued an innovative procedure called Orthokine.
The Yankees approved the treatment, which was performed within the last month, and cleared Rodriguez's procedure with the Commissioner's Office to avoid the appearance that Rodriguez might be receiving impermissible treatment. Rodriguez has resumed offseason workouts and is expected to be ready for Spring Training. Hitting coach Kevin Long said that he plans to travel to Miami, Fla. to begin working with Rodriguez next week.
Orthokine involves taking blood from the patient's arm vein and spinning it in a centrifuge to isolate protective proteins. That solution is then injected into the afflicted area once or twice a week; in this case, Rodriguez's knee.
Bryant made two trips to Germany this year for procedures on his ailing right knee. He also reportedly had a procedure in October to treat a left ankle ailment.
"A lot of athletes I've talked to really think this stuff works, but we really don't have a lot of scientific knowledge behind it of exactly what's happening," Dr. Jonathan Glashow, the co-chief of sports medicine at Mount Sinai Hospital, told the Post.
"It's a great way to reduce inflammation and therefore pain, and that's the essence of it. I think a lot of the athletes who have wear-and-tear on their knees benefit from this. You do it for awhile and if it doesn't stay good you do it again in a few years."
Rodriguez battled through what he called his most frustrating season in 2011, batting .276 with 16 home runs and 62 RBIs in 99 games for the Yankees. He missed 38 team games after being placed on the disabled list on July 14, retroactive to July 8, to undergo arthroscopic knee surgery to repair a torn right meniscus.
In Rodriguez's first game back from the DL on Aug. 21, Rodriguez suffered a sprained left thumb while fielding a ground ball. He batted just .191 (13-for-68) after returning from the DL and was 2-for-18 (.111) in the American League Division Series loss to the Tigers.
"I've got a lot of work to do personally," Rodriguez said after the ALDS. "I've got to get my health back and I know exactly what I have to do to help this team get back to the top."
The chances of the reigning American League Central champion Detroit Tigers returning to the playoffs again in the 2012 season just got a bit longer as catcher/first baseman/DH Victor Martinez was revealed to have torn an ACL during off-season conditioning and will likely miss the season.
Martinez will be re-evaluated by Dr. Richard Stedman next week and surgery to repair the torn ACL in his left knee is anticipated. A four-time All-Star, Martinez hit .330 with 40 doubles, 12 home runs and 103 RBIs in 145 games last season, his first with the Tigers since signing a four-year, $50 million contract as a free agent last offseason.
The good news is that the Tigers had mostly made Martinez a full-time DH and that position is easily replaceable compared to catcher, where Martinez had only 94 at-bats a season ago with Alex Avila emerging at the position. Martinez had just 22 at-bats as a first baseman a year ago.
There are still a few free-agent bats available to play DH, guys like former Tiger Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Pena and Hideki Matsui. The Tigers could trade for the Angels’ Bobby Abreu or the Astros’ Carlos Lee, although they probably are too expensive. They could intensify their pursuit of Cuban free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and move outfielder Delmon Young to DH. That would improve the outfield defense as well. Finances certainly will play a role as the Tigers have one of the highest payrolls in baseball. Martinez is under contract for $13 million this season, $13 million in 2013, and $12 million in 2014.
The Tigers, who lost in the ALCS to the Texas Rangers last season, are still the AL Central betting favorites on Bovada’s MLB baseball odds, but perennial MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera just lost some major protection hitting behind him in that Tiger lineup.
The chances of the reigning American League Central champion Detroit Tigers returning to the playoffs again in the 2012 season just got a bit longer as catcher/first baseman/DH Victor Martinez was revealed to have torn an ACL during off-season conditioning and will likely miss the season.
Martinez will be re-evaluated by Dr. Richard Stedman next week and surgery to repair the torn ACL in his left knee is anticipated. A four-time All-Star, Martinez hit .330 with 40 doubles, 12 home runs and 103 RBIs in 145 games last season, his first with the Tigers since signing a four-year, $50 million contract as a free agent last offseason.
The good news is that the Tigers had mostly made Martinez a full-time DH and that position is easily replaceable compared to catcher, where Martinez had only 94 at-bats a season ago with Alex Avila emerging at the position. Martinez had just 22 at-bats as a first baseman a year ago.
There are still a few free-agent bats available to play DH, guys like former Tiger Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Pena and Hideki Matsui. The Tigers could trade for the Angels’ Bobby Abreu or the Astros’ Carlos Lee, although they probably are too expensive. They could intensify their pursuit of Cuban free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and move outfielder Delmon Young to DH. That would improve the outfield defense as well. Finances certainly will play a role as the Tigers have one of the highest payrolls in baseball. Martinez is under contract for $13 million this season, $13 million in 2013, and $12 million in 2014.
The Tigers, who lost in the ALCS to the Texas Rangers last season, are still the AL Central betting favorites on Bovada’s MLB baseball odds, but perennial MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera just lost some major protection hitting behind him in that Tiger lineup.
The Boston Red Sox appear to have a gaping hole at the back end of their rotation, yet the team hasn’t yet added anyone established who can eat innings behind Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. Boston was very interested in free-agent right-hander Edwin Jackson to slot in at No. 4 in the rotation, but apparently not interested enough as Jackson has signed a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals.
Jackson was hoping for a long-term lucrative deal, but it appeared that most teams were only offering a year (as Boston was). The 28-year-old has No. 1 stuff but has pitched for six different teams since 2003, most recently the champion St. Louis Cardinals in the second half of last season. Last year, with the White Sox and Cardinals, Jackson had a 3.79 ERA over 199 2/3 innings, striking out 148 batters and walking 62.
The Nats now appear to have a very strong rotation with Stephen Strasburg, recent trade acquisition Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Jackson and Chien-Ming Wang. Look for Washington to trade one of its excess starters like John Lannan. The Nationals, 28/1 on Bovada’s MLB futures odds to win the World Series, look like a potential wild-card team suddenly if they can hit a little.
Boston, meanwhile, might now have to overpay for Roy Oswalt, who is also being courted by the Cardinals and Texas Rangers. Behind the Big 3, the Red Sox have a handful of candidates. Daisuke Matsuzaka had Tommy John surgery last June and probably won’t be back until after the All-Star Break, although he did throw his first bullpen session this week. That leaves Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves trying to make the transition from relievers to starters, reclamation projects Vicente Padilla, Aaron Cook and Carlos Silva and holdovers Felix Doubront and Andrew Miller.
That staff doesn’t exactly matchup with the stellar Tampa Bay Rays rotation or the newly fortified starting five of the Yankees, who added Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda. Boston is 11/1 on Bovada’s MLB futures odds to win the 2012 World Series.
With pitchers set to report to spring training camps in Florida and Arizona later this week, it’s time to start the Major League Baseball team-by-team previews here at Bovada and we start at the bottom: the Houston Astros. Will they contend for the NL Central title or a playoff spot? It would be a miracle. Houston is 100/1 on Bovada’s baseball futures odds to win the 2012 World Series.
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It’s the final season in the National League for Houston, which was sold over the offseason and will head to the American League West next season. It’s a complete rebuild in Houston. Last year for the first time in team history, the Astros lost more than a 100 games. They finished 56-106, becoming the first major league team to lose 106 or more games since the 2005 Royals.
And at least that team had Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence, two pretty good players, for a few months. But both outfielders were dealt at the trading deadline. Now the only player you might recognize in the everyday lineup is vastly overpaid Carlos Lee, whom the team would love to trade. He could be attractive to an AL team around this year’s deadline as Lee is in the final year of his contract.
Houston also would love to trade its two top starting pitchers in Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers but hasn’t found much interest of yet. The Astros also have to find a new closer after they traded Mark Melancon to Boston this offseason for shortstop Jed Lowrie and pitcher Kyle Weiland. In giving up Melancon, the Astros dealt arguably their top relief pitcher whom they acquired in the Lance Berkman trade with the Yankees. The right-hander took over the closer’s job from an injured Brandon Lyon last year and for the season had a 2.78 ERA with 20 saves.
Lyon and David Carpenter are the leading candidates to close this year. Lyon had an 11.48 ERA in just 15 games of an injury-plagued 2011. Lowrie will start from Day 1 at shortstop, while Weiland will have a shot at making the rotation.
Well, the Seattle Mariners will be first at something in the 2012 season: Their pitchers and catchers were the first of the 30 clubs to report to camp and their full squad reported Friday. Will that matter much with Seattle looking poised to finish at the bottom of the AL West again? The Mariners are 90/1 on Bovada’s baseball betting futures to win the World Series this season and 50/1 to win the AL pennant.
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Seattle finished 67-95 a year ago despite the presence of two star pitchers: Felix Hernandez, the 2001 Cy Young winner, and Michael Pineda, who was dominant at times in his rookie season, going 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA and 173 strikeouts in 171 innings. The problem was again the offense for Seattle, which was last in MLB in runs and batting average.
The Mariners supposedly had money to spend this offseason and many expected the team would make a mammoth offer to free agent slugger Prince Fielder, but that never materialized. Instead, Seattle stunned the baseball world by trading Pineda to the New York Yankees for young slugging catcher/DH Jesus Montero. He will slot right into the cleanup spot after hitting .328 with four homers and 12 RBIs in spot late-season duty with New York.
In addition, Manager Eric Wedge is expected to shift Ichiro Suzuki, who had his worst season in MLB last season, from the leadoff spot to No. 2. Ichiro didn't reach 200 hits, make the All-Star team or earn a Gold Glove for the first time in 11 years in the majors. Dustin Ackley, one of the rising star second basemen in baseball, probably will hit leadoff. Chone Figgins, who has been a massive bust in Seattle after getting a $36 million free agent deal a few years ago, also could lead off. But outside of Ichiro, Ackley and Montero, the lineup is full of questions again. It’s time for Justin Smoak, acquired for Cliff Lee two seasons ago, to show why he was such a highly regarded prospect at one point (the M’s originally were going to send Lee to the Yanks for …. Montero).
The rotation will be headed by Hernandez, who “slipped” to a 14-14 mark with a 3.47 ERA a season ago. The M’s could get an incredible amount of young talent by trading King Felix but they continue to say they won’t do that. Jason Vargas will slot in behind Hernandez, but the rest of the rotation is up for grabs. Newcomers Hisashi Iwakuma and Kevin Millwood figure to win two of the spots. Hector Noesi, also acquired in the Pineda deal, figures to get into the rotation sooner rather than later. Seattle has an excellent closer in Brandon League, who had 37 saves and a 2.79 ERA a year ago.
The Mariners could actually grab the early AL West lead – only because they open with two regular-season games March 28-29 in Tokyo against the A's a week before the rest of MLB begins. Hence the early reporting date. But with the big-spending Rangers and Angels in the AL West, Seattle is years away from contention.
It’s a new year but the same expected result for the perennially rebuilding Baltimore Orioles as nearly every prognosticator expects the Birds to finish fifth in the AL East again, just as they did a year ago with a 69-93 record – their 14th straight season with a losing record and sixth straight with at least 92 losses. Baltimore is 150/1 on Bovada’s MLB futures odds to win the World Series and 75/1 to win the AL pennant.
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The Orioles are such a mess that they couldn’t even lure their first couple of choices to be the president of baseball operations – Dan Duquette is the guy to replace Andy MacPhail. And the Birds were pretty quiet this offseason, adding the likes of international pitchers Tsuyoshi Wada and Wei-Yin Chen, who have no big-league experience. Zach Britton, who was 11-11 with a 4.61 ERA last year projects as the No. 1 starter – if healthy. He will be limited at the start of spring training due to lingering issues with a left shoulder strain that landed him on the disabled list last August. The team had high hopes for Brian Matusz a season ago but he took a major step back. Is he still a top-flight prospect? Jim Johnson, who had nine saves and a 2.67 ERA a year ago, will likely close. But as a whole the pitching staff looks like one of the worst in baseball.
The O's offense is virtually the same as last season, although second baseman Brian Roberts' health continues to be a major question. The biggest concern is that manager Buck Showalter has no true cleanup hitter – right now it’s probably Adam Jones although the Birds could still sign a DH as Wilson Betemit probably isn’t the answer.
On the bright side, Jones is one of the AL’s top outfielders. Catcher Matt Wieters is one of the best at his position and third baseman Mark Reynolds hit 37 homers a year ago but also struck out a ridiculous amount. Right fielder Nick Markakis is underrated and shortstop J.J. Hardy hit 30 bombs in 2011. Acquired in a midseason trade with Texas, former Rangers top prospect Chris Davis will get every chance to win the first base job. He struggled with a shoulder injury upon coming to Baltimore.
Duquette says he thinks this club can finish .500 or better this year. I suppose anything is possible.
Most times you won’t find a team that won only 71 games the season before being so optimistic heading into the following season, but that’s what the Chicago Cubs seem to be because the franchise now has direction under former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein. However, it looks like Epstein has quite the rebuilding process ahead as the Cubs are only 22/1 to win the NL pennant and 40/1 to win the World Series on Bovada's MLB futures odds.
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Epstein was lured from Boston with total control of the Cubs organization, and he already has made several trades – including sending out headcase pitcher Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins, with the Cubs also having to pay $15 million of Zambrano’s $18 million salary. Chicago also got starter Chris Volstad, who will start the season in rotation. Matt Garza is now the ace – presuming he’s not also traded for prospects. Garza had a solid 3.32 ERA and 1.26 WHIP a season ago but was only 10-10 because the Cubs’ bullpen blew seven games that Garza left with the lead. Ryan Dempster struggled last year with an ERA near 5.00 but slots in as the No. 2 starter. Volstad and lefties Travis Wood and Paul Maholm, both new additions, likely will fill out the rotation.
Closer Carlos Marmol is back. While he had 34 saves last year, he also had a 2-6 record and blew a National League-high 10 saves. When he’s on, Marmol is as nasty anyone (witness the 99 strikeouts in 74 innings). But unfortunately Marmol is also very wild (witness the 48 walks in those innings).
The Cubs let their two top power threats, first baseman Carlos Pena and third baseman Aramis Ramirez, take their combined 54 homers and 173 RBIs to free agency and they will be replaced by two players who are nowhere near as qualified: Bryan LaHair and Ian Stewart, respectively. LaHair was the Pacific Coast League MVP in the minors last year but hasn’t shown he can hit major league pitching yet. Stewart was good in 2010 with Colorado but a disaster a season ago. Alfonso Soriano remains an albatross in the outfield and on the payroll – if Chicago can find a sucker to take Soriano, he will be traded. He’s the only likely starter to have hit more than 18 homers a season ago.
The star of the lineup is young shortstop Starlin Castro, who led the NL with hits in 2011. He's only the second shortstop to have managed multiple batting title-eligible seasons with at least a .300 batting average before his 22nd birthday. Only Alex Rodriguez had more hits as a shortstop before his 22nd birthday.
The North Siders have direction now and as a franchise as well as new “Cubs Way” of doing things under Epstein, but on-field results aren’t likely for another few years. Epstein will try to peddle as many veterans as possible to stock up with young players.
The Milwaukee Brewers, the defending National League Central champions, got some great news last week when outfielder and reigning NL MVP Ryan Braun won his appeal of a 50-game suspension, but Braun likely won’t see fellow starting outfielder Corey Hart next to him on Opening Day as Hart has a knee injury and is expected to miss the start of the season. Milwaukee is 14/1 on Bovada’s MLB futures odds to win the NL pennant.
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An MRI on Sunday showed Hart, Milwaukee’s right fielder, has torn cartilage in his right knee. Hart will undergo arthroscopic surgery later in the week and is expected to be out of action for three to four weeks. So that means for sure all of spring training and making it likely that he would open the regular season on the disabled list for the second year in a row. Milwaukee opens the season April 6 against St. Louis. Of course the wild-card Cardinals knocked off the Brewers in the NLCS on the way to the World Series title. After that three game-series, Milwaukee plays its next seven on the road, at the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves.
Hart will hit fifth in the Brewers lineup when healthy, an important spot considering he is expected to protect new cleanup man Aramis Ramirez. In addition, Hart is expected to serve as the primary backup to new first baseman Mat Gamel.
Manager Ron Roenicke noted that Hart missed the entire exhibition season in 2011 with an oblique strain and rushed back in April to play, with poor results. Hart came off the DL early a year ago and it definitely showed, hitting.235 with one RBI in his first 15 games (he didn’t debut until April 26). But he then batted .290 with 26 home runs and 62 RBIs in the 115 games that followed. The Brewers' fourth and fifth outfielders are Carlos Gomez and Japanese import Norichika Aoki.
Los Angeles Angels owner Arte Moreno was tired of seeing the Halos’ AL West-rival Texas Rangers reach back-to-back World Series, not to mention the Rangers having dethroned the Angels as the AL West champions the past two seasons. So Moreno opened his wallet this offseason, and now L.A. is one of the World Series favorites in 2012. Los Angeles is 7/1 to win the Fall Classic on Bovada's MLB futures odds – behind only the Phillies and Yankees – and the 7/2 second-favorite to win the AL pennant.
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Of course the big signing for L.A. was future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols, who brought his three MVP awards and two World Series rings to Anaheim after spending his entire career with the St. Louis Cardinals. All it took was some $241 million over 10 years to lure Pujols. L.A. was just 10th in the AL in runs and eighth in homers a year ago and obviously those numbers should jump with Pujols in the three-hole – he has been good for at least 32 home runs and 99 RBIs in each of his 10 seasons.
The L.A. offense should also improve with the return to health of one-time rising star Kendrys Morales, who now moves to DH. He was coming off a 34-homer, 108-RBI season in 2010 when he broke his left after just 51 games. Morales hasn’t played a games since but is apparently healthy. He should hit cleanup behind Pujols. And Mark Trumbo, who had a strong rookie season, gives the Halos another major power bat at No. 5 – Trumbo is expected to move to third base from first.
While the lineup should be good, the rotation should be better with the free-agent addition of C.J. Wilson, which helped weaken those Rangers. He joins Jered Weaver (second in Cy Young voting last year, fifth in 2010), Dan Haren and Ervin Santana to give the Angels arguably the best Top 4 of any rotation in baseball. That quartet gives manager Mike Scioscia four starters who averaged 232 innings with a 2.97 ERA last year. Closer Jordan Walden also had a strong rookie season ago with 32 saves and a 2.98 ERA. But one concern is that Walden blew 10 saves and posted a 4.35 ERA in September. But it’s his job to lose.
This appears to be the best Angels team since their 2002 victory over the Giants in the World Series. But the AL West should be a dogfight with the equally powerful Rangers. The addition of a second wild card this season could really benefit whichever of those teams finishes second in the division. L.A. is the -125 favorite to win the West at Bovada.
Source: Big Spending LA Angels May Be Team to Beat in 2012 Season | Gambling Beat News
What a different two years makes. Two springs ago, the Texas Rangers likely would have been ecstatic if you had told them that they would win even a playoff game that fall. But after reaching back-to-back World Series losses – and falling just one strike short twice of winning last year against the St. Louis Cardinals – nothing short of the franchise’s first world title will suffice in 2012. Texas is 10/1 on Bovada’s MLB baseball futures to win the World Series, and 11/2 to win its third straight AL pennant.
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The Rangers lost their ace from last season, lefty C.J. Wilson, to the division-rival Angels. But Wilson was awful in last year’s playoffs, so the Rangers didn’t make any real attempt to re-sign him. Instead, Texas is moving former star closer Neftali Feliz to the rotation and added the most heralded Japanese pitcher ever in Yu Darvish. Now that Texas rotation is six deep, meaning that rookie star Alexi Ogando will likely move to the bullpen. The Rangers are also hoping that former Twins closer Joe Nathan returns to his All-Star form this year. He missed all of 2010 after elbow surgery and had a 7.63 ERA in his first 17 games last year before going on the disabled list on May 29. But Nathan was 11-for-12 in save opportunities in his final 31 games after being activated off the DL. Still, at 37 Nathan represents a big injury risk.
The Rangers were one of the top teams in the AL in offense a year ago and that lineup is back intact. It should again be terrific in one of the majors’ top hitting parks as long as guys like Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz stay healthy – Cruz could be in line for a monster season after his six home run, 13-RBI record-setting performance in the ALCS. He is 12 pounds lighter in camp in hopes of avoiding the leg/hamstring problems that have plagued him. Hamilton, meanwhile, was limited to 121 games a year ago because of various injuries. He missed 28 games the year before when he won the AL MVP.
With the Angels having added Albert Pujols and Wilson, it certainly will be tougher for Texas to win 96 games and threepeat as AL West champions – the Rangers even money to win the division compared to -125 for the Halos. And it could be a now-or-never situation for Texas this year. Yes, the Rangers have a stellar farm system, but Hamilton and star catcher Mike Napoli are eligible for free agency after this season.
Everyone considers Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane one of the best and most revolutionary GMs in baseball, but it’s time to wonder why Beane sticks in Oakland. The A’s play in the majors’ worst stadium and a move to San Jose and a new park doesn’t seem imminent. Thus Beane had to start an entirely new rebuilding process this offseason and Oakland is likely to be near the bottom of the American League yet again. The A’s are 80/1 on Bovada’s MLB baseball futures to win the World Series, 40/1 to win the AL pennant and 35/1 to win the AL West.
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Oakland finished 74-88 and third in the AL West last year but definitely has taken a step back in terms of major-league talent. Traded were All-Star-caliber pitchers Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez and closer Andrew Bailey to Arizona, Washington and Boston, respectively, for prospects. The A’s pitching staff was a strength last year, ranking third in the AL in ERA at 3.71. Now that group will be led by Brandon McCarthy, the Opening Day starter vs. Seattle in a few weeks, and a bunch of question marks (guys like Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson are coming off major surgeries). Grant Balfour will likely close games.
The offense was terrible a year ago and probably won’t be any better after three of the top run-producers from last year, Josh Willingham, Hideki Matsui and David DeJesus departed. Plus projected third baseman Scott Sizemore has already been lost for the season with a torn ACL. Beane was so desperate for offense he gave outfielder Coco Crisp $14 million and signed Manny Ramirez off the scrap heap to a minor-league deal. Even if Ramirez makes the roster as the DH, he has to miss the first 50 games due to suspension.
But Beane’s big move was signing highly touted Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes to a four-year, $36 million deal, outbidding several big-money clubs in the process. The 6-foot, 215-pound Cespedes played eight seasons for Granma in the Cuban League, tallying a record 33 home runs to go along with a .333 average and 99 RBIs in 90 games during the 2010-11 campaign. It’s not clear if he will begin the season in the minors or with the big club.
The A’s definitely have a stacked farm system now and maybe Cespedes will be a star some day. But contention is a long ways off.
Source: 2012 Oakland Athletics Rebuilding, Lucky to Win 75 Games | Gambling Beat News
By all accounts, the Detroit Tigers had a wildly successful 2011 season. They won the AL Central for the first time and by a whopping 15 games. Detroit advanced to the ALCS before succumbing to the Texas Rangers. Pitcher Justin Verlander won the Cy Young award and the AL MVP and first baseman Miguel Cabrera won the AL batting title.
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But owner Mike Ilitch wants a World Series title so he made one of the most shocking moves of the offseason: signing Prince Fielder. Will that be enough to get the Tigers their first championship since 1984? Detroit is the 8/1 fourth-favorite on Bovada’s MLB futures odds to win the Fall Classic and the 4/1 second-favorite to win the AL pennant. The Tigers are the biggest favorites in baseball to win their division at -500.
When DH Victor Martinez went down with a season-ending injury in February, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski acted quickly to add protection behind Cabrera in the lineup in Fielder, the former Brewers star. All it took was $214 million over nine years – the Tigers were never considered suitors for Fielder because he plays Cabrera’s position. However Cabrera agreed to move to third base, where he began his career with the Marlins.
The left-handed hitting Fielder has averaged 40 homers and 113 RBIs over the past five years. He's also been among the most durable players in the majors, appearing in at least 157 games in each of the last six seasons. With Cabrera and Fielder, easily the best 3-4 hitter combo in baseball, Detroit will begin this season with two players under age 30 with at least 200 career homers. That has only happened once in MLB history: At the start of the 1961 season, the Milwaukee Braves featured 29-year-old Eddie Mathews (338 homers) and 27-year-old Hank Aaron (219). Only three teams scored more runs last season than the Tigers, and this year's offense figures to be even better with Fielder on board and Delmon Young in Detroit for a full season.
As for the rotation, there is no pitcher better than Verlander. He led the majors in wins by going 24-5 and topped baseball with 250 strikeouts. His 2.40 ERA was the best among AL pitchers who qualified for the title. Verlander pitched his second career no-hitter and won 12 straight starts down the stretch. Doug Fister was a revelation last season after being acquired from Seattle and slots in behind Verlander, with Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello back at No. 3 and No. 4. The only question is who rounds out the rotation – it could be top prospect Jacob Turner. The bullpen is in good hands with closer Jose Valverde, who led the majors with 49 saves in 2011. With setup men Octavio Dotel, Joaquin Benoit and Phil Coke, Detroit should have one of the majors’ best bullpens.
Simply put, another 95 wins and ALCS appearance won’t cut it in Detroit this season – it’s Fall Classic or bust. Detroit’s over/under win total at Bovada is 91.5.
At first glance, the Cleveland Indians weren’t in the same ballpark as the Detroit Tigers last season, with the Tribe finishing 15 games behind Detroit in the American League Central. But that’s misleading – Cleveland spent 95 days in first place in 2011. Can the up-and-coming Indians win their first division title since 2007? They are +1000 on Bovada’s MLB baseball futures odds, along with +2800 to win the AL pennant and +6000 to win the World Series.
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The Indians started last season 30-15 and had a seven-game lead in the division before starting to fade. But that start, and last year’s trade for pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez, gave major hope for contention in 2012. Unfortunately the offseason has been cruel for Cleveland. Projected No. 3 starter Fausto Carmona was arrested in the Dominican Republic for using a false identity – and he’s 31, not 28. Carmona was the Indians' Opening Day starter last season. The right-hander, whose real name is Roberto Hernandez Heredia, finished 7-15 with a 5.25 ERA in 32 starts. His status is totally up in the air, but the Tribe are moving forward without him in their plans.
In addition, center fielder Grady Sizemore likely will miss at least the first two months of the season after back surgery. The three-time All-Star was limited to 71 games last year, hitting .224 with 10 home runs, 32 RBIs and 34 runs scored. He was set to lead off in 2012. Michael Brantley is expected to shift from left to center and leadoff now. The Cleveland lineup will go All-Star shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, catcher Carlos Santana and right fielder Shin-Soo Choo. Cabrera, hit 25 homers and led the team with 92 RBIs a year ago. Santana led Cleveland with 27 homers, while Choo had a down season due to injuries but is considered one of the best all-around outfielders in the AL. The only major addition to the lineup this offseason was first baseman Casey Kotchman.
Cleveland’s ace is Justin Masterson. The right-hander had a 2.64 ERA at the All-Star break but was 3.95 in the second half of his first full year as a starter. Jimenez slots behind Masterson, followed by Josh Tomlin and new acquisitions Derek Lowe and Kevin Slowey. Closer Chris Perez had an All-Star season in 2011 with 36 saves and a 3.32 ERA. But he injured his left oblique muscle early in camp and isn’t a lock for Opening Day. The Tribe’s over/under win total for this season is 78.5
The Kansas City Royals franchise has never won the American League Central. Not only that, Kansas City has never finished better than third in that division and hasn’t had a winning record since 2003. Yet why do some feel that the Royals are a sleeper team to watch in 2012? K.C. is 80/1 to win the World Series, 40/1 to win the AL pennant and +1500 to take the division title on Bovada’s MLB baseball futures odds.
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The Royals have a collection of young prospects that is the envy of most every team in baseball, but is that group ready to win? K.C. has improved its win total slightly the past three seasons, to 71 wins a season ago and fourth-place finish. This year’s over/under total at Bovada is 78.5. The offense seems ready to be contender-worthy now. K.C.s stocked farm system produced 12 players who broke into the majors in 2011, including regulars with star potential like first baseman Eric Hosmer, catcher Salvador Perez and third baseman Mike Moustakas. Former No. 2 overall pick Alex Gordon finally had a breakthrough season, hitting .303 with 23 homers and 87 RBIs in 2011. Kansas City finished a solid sixth in the AL in runs and fourth in batting average. The average age of the Royals’ position players is just 24.5.
The rotation was a problem last season, with it ranking 13th in ERA in the 14-team AL. To help bolster that group, GM Dayton Moore traded outfielder Melky Cabrera to the San Francisco Giants for lefty Jonathan Sanchez. He can be brilliant, as he was in 2010, but also erratic, taking a step back in 2011 by going 4-7 with a 4.26 ERA and missing six weeks or so with an ankle sprain.
Luke Hochevar, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft, had his best season, going 11-11 with a 4.68 ERA in 31 starts. He was 6-3 with a 3.52 ERA after the All-Star break. Lefty Bruce Chen is a third veteran starter, while the final two spots will be decided among some touted youngsters in camp. The Royals had a good bullpen last year even though closer Joakim Soria wasn’t quite in All-Star form, saving 28 of 35 opportunities with a 4.03 ERA.
The Royals have won more than 80 games just once since 1993, but if all the young talent jells, especially among the starting pitchers, Kansas City could begin a climb in the AL West.
Is any franchise in baseball more dependent on the health of two players for the 2012 season than the Minnesota Twins are on that of All-Stars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau? After an injury-plagued, disastrous 2011 season, the Twins believe they can contend in the American League Central if Mauer and Morneau stay off the DL. Minnesota is 75/1 to win the World Series, 40/1 to win the AL pennant and 15/1 to win the Central Division on Bovada’s MLB baseball futures.
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Both Mauer and Morneau are AL MVP candidates when healthy, but especially for Morneau that hasn’t been the case of late. Morneau played 69 games in 2011 while dealing with concussion symptoms that began in July 2010. Mauer was limited to 82 games a season ago by leg problems and pneumonia. They combined for just seven homers. Mauer, in fact, has just one at home in two seasons since the Twins moved to Target Field. The good news is that Mauer and Morneau appear healthy this spring as does the team’s third-best player, outfielder Denard Span. He played just 70 games last season after sustaining a concussion in a home-plate collision on June 3.
Minnesota’s biggest departures from last year’s club were long-time Twins Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. New GM Terry Ryan, who took back his former spot last November, signed veterans such as Jamey Carroll, Josh Willingham, Joel Zumaya and Ryan Doumit. Carroll slots in as the starting shortstop but he’s not the long-term answer and is a slap hitter but a solid defensive player. Willingham was terrific last season in Oakland, hitting 29 homers and knocking in 98 and will hit No. 5 behind Mauer and Morneau while replacing Cuddyer in the outfield. And Doumit will DH, although both Morneau and Mauer will play there at times.
Zumaya, projected as a set-up man for closer Matt Capps, already has been lost for the season. That Twins bullpen was last in the AL a season ago with a 4.51 ERA. The rotation is solid but not spectacular. The key likely will be lefty and No. 2 starter Francisco Liriano. He looked like an ace in 2010 with a 3.62 ERA and 201 strikeouts in 191 2/3 innings, but he regressed last year with a 9-10 record, 5.09 ERA and 112 strikeouts in 134 1/3 innings. The No. 1 starter is Carl Pavano. He won’t overpower anyone but he's averaged 214 innings a year over the past three seasons and posted the sixth-lowest walk rate among qualified starters in 2011.
Certainly this team will win more than the American League-worst 63 games it did a season ago – its over/under at Bovada is 72.5. But a third division title in four years depends on the health of the Big 2.
Here’s all you need to know about how the 2012 season looks for the Chicago White Sox: GM Kenny Williams said this winter after trading closer Sergio Santos that the move was the start of a rebuild and it does appear that the White Sox aren’t serious contenders in the AL Central for the first time in years. Chicago is 65/1 on Bovada’s MLB futures to win the World Series, 35/1 to win the AL pennant and 15/1 to win the Central Division. Its over/under win total is 75.5.
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The White Sox haven’t won a playoff series since their 2005 World Series title and have only won the division once since then – in 2008. Last year Chicago slipped to 79-83 and third in the Central, a distant 16 games behind the first-place Tigers. Gone now are Mark Buerhle, the White Sox’s ace for more than a decade, and manager Ozzie Guillen – both landed with the Miami Marlins. Williams was under orders to trim the payroll, so he traded Santos (30 saves in 2011) and All-Star outfielder Carlos Quentin to Toronto and San Diego, respectively, for pitching prospects.
Chicago didn’t make any big additions, other than new manager Robin Ventura, but did lock up new No. 1 starter John Danks to a five-year deal after Williams couldn’t get a big package in trade for him. Danks, who will start Opening Day, is one of four starters back along with Gavin Floyd, Jake Peavy and Phil Humber. Peavy has been a vast disappointment since being acquired in a big trade with the Padres in 2009, winning only 17 games and making 38 starts due to injuries. But Peavy says he is healthy this spring for the first time since his banner days in San Diego, where he won the 2007 Cy Young Award. Former reliever Chris Sale rounds out the rotation. The closer job is up for grabs this spring between Matt Thornton, Jesse Crain and rookie Addison Reed.
The lineup has two anchors in first baseman Paul Konerko and shortstop Alexei Ramirez, who are both All-Star-caliber players. Adam Dunn had arguably the worst hitting season ever last year, hitting a record-low .156 with only 11 homers and 42 RBIs after regularly hitting 35-plus homers and knocking in 100-plus runs in the National League. Outfielder Alex Rios also took a giant step back a year ago, hitting only .227 and rarely getting on base at all. Second baseman Gordon Beckham was once considered a rising star but it’s like a make-or-break season for him in 2012 after another disappointing campaign. The biggest new addition to the starting lineup is Dayan Viciedo (in Quentin’s place), who was terrific in Triple-A last season but hit just .255 with a homer and six RBIs in 102 big-league at-bats in 2011.
If Chicago struggles, as expected, look for Williams to be very busy trading off his veterans at the July 31 trade deadline to get his team younger and cheaper.
The Texas Rangers surged to the American League West title last season, but after opening their wallets in the offseason the Los Angeles Angels have pushed their way to the top of the AL West’s MLB futures list at Bovada.
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Texas won nine of its last 10 games in 2011 to win the AL West by 10 games over the Angels, finishing with a record of 96-66. Los Angeles won 86 games in 2011, with the Athletics winning 74 games, and the Mariners picking up just 67 victories.
On the World Series futures at Bovada the Angels are third at 7/1, with Texas set at 10/1.
Enter Albert Pujols, with the Angels shelling out $250 million over 10 years to steal the free-agent slugger away from the Cardinals in the offseason. Pujols' numbers have declined in the last two years, but that means he hit 'only' .299 with 37 home runs in 2011.
And Los Angeles didn't stop with just Pujols, as they also pulled starting pitcher C.J. Wilson away from the Rangers with a five-year, $77.5 million contract. Left-hander Wilson went 16-7 for Texas last season with a 2.94 ERA and 206 strikeouts.
Add those two players to the Angels' roster and they're now the -125 favorites on the MLB futures at Bovada to win the AL West in 2012, with the Rangers second at EVEN odds. The Athletics (+3000) and the Mariners (+4500) are the long shots to claim that crown.
To replace Wilson the Rangers have rolled the dice with Japanese import Yu Darvish, at a cost of $60 million over six years. The 25-year-old right-hander was a sought-after commodity in the offseason after dominating overseas in the Pacific League.
The AL East is consistently one of the most exciting division races in MLB betting odds. Whether it is the age-old New York Yankees versus Boston Red Sox battle, or a team like the Tampa Bay Rays or Toronto Blue Jays finding their ways into the mix, the AL East always seems to entertain right down to the end of the season.
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The New York Yankees are a -150 favorite to win the AL East, one season after winning the division by six games over Tampa Bay. The Yankees added former Los Angeles Dodger Hiroki Kuroda to bolster their pitching staff, but this team will once again be built around out-hitting other teams with Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez leading the way.
The Boston Red Sox (+300) had a disappointing collapse last season, and staples such as manager Terry Francona (replaced by Bobby Valentine), captain Jason Varitek (retired), and closer Justin Papelbon (signed with Philadelphia) will no longer be with the team. Still, with a strong staff led by Jon Lester and Josh Beckett and a potent offense, Boston has plenty of talent to bounce back.
The Tampa Bay Rays (+450) always seem to find their way into the division race despite losing major talent every offseason thanks in large part to their pitching staff, which should be their strength again next year. This resilient bunch doesn’t have the offense to hang out with the big boys, but the Rays do have the pitching staff to keep games close.
On the outside looking in are the youthful Toronto Blue Jays (+1200) and the rebuilding Baltimore Orioles (+10000). It is hard to see either team topping New York and Boston over the course of 162 games, but both teams have plenty of pop in their lineup and could conceivably get hot and compete if the frontrunners should happen to falter.
Santana missed all of last season after having surgery in September 2010 to repair a torn capsule in his left shoulder. Originally the Mets hoped he would pitch in the second half of last season, but he had one bad break after another and ended making only one minor-league start before being shut down following another setback.
“We do have some question marks, of course, with Santana being one of them,” general manager Sandy Alderson said this week. “We think he’s going to be ready, but he might not be.”
This is the last thing the Mets need. They already lost face of the franchise Jose Reyes to free agency this offseason. And the team is massively cutting payroll with ownership still reeling from the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme. In fact, the club just got what was essentially an emergency $40 million loan from Bank of America. The Mets reportedly lost $70 million last season.
Santana, who went 11-9 with a 2.98 ERA in 2010, is owed a whopping $50 million over the next two years. And he’s obviously untradeable at this point. Thus his contract will weigh this team down for at least that long. His contract also includes a $25 million team option for the 2014 season (with a $5.5 million buyout). The two-time AL Cy Young award winner with the Minnesota Twins will turn 33 in March.
The Mets are currently 50/1 on Bovada’s MLB futures to win the 2012 World Series, but it’s more likely this will be the worst team in the National League.