Manne wrote:
It kicked off with Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees combining for 700-plus yards and six touchdowns on Thursday night, and finished with Tom Brady making passing history in Miami. In between all that was Carolina rookie Cam Newton getting his pigskin off for 422 passing yards, breaking Peyton Manning’s record for a QB debut.
The affect on NFL odds was widespread. Twenty-six of 32 teams went OVER the total, probably catching oddsmakers completely off guard.
Who will adjust going forward, NFL defenses or NFL oddsmakers?
We keep that question in the back of the brain as we move in to Week 1 of our NFL Betting Power Rankings. That’s “betting” power rankings. The other guys can rank teams by wins and losses, we do it by consistency against the spread (ATS) and total (O/U).
However, like most power rankings, check weekly for an update to the list.
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Bet on all your NFL Week 2 lines in the Bodog Sportsbook!
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1. New England Patriots (1-0 ATS/ 1-0 OU)
The fact that Miami’s Chad Henne dropped 400-plus on their defense is a concern, but the Patriots offense is just too potent to doubt ATS. New England hasn’t gone below .500 ATS since Brady was cheerleading for Drew Bledsoe. They also have gone OVER in 11 of their last 12 games, making their parlay potential unmatched.
2. Green Bay Packers (1-0 ATS/ 1-0 OU)
The Packers come in at No. 2 but have potential to pound oddsmakers until they give them college spreads. They went 9-7 ATS last year despite being Dr. James Andrews’ favorite customer, if they stay healthy they have playmakers on both sides of the ball that no one can match up with.
3. Baltimore Ravens (1-0 ATS/ 0-1 OU)
Versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore was balanced on offense, stifling on defense and QB Joe Flacco seems to have stolen some of Ben Roethlisberger’s championship swag. If Flacco stays steady so will Baltimore ATS.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0 ATS/1-0 OU)
The run defense looked iffy, allowing the St. Louis Rams to rush for 154 yards, but as long as Michael Vick is going video game the Eagles have a shot at covering the spread. Unfortunately, Vick is taking hits — a total of 11 in Week 1 — and an injury seems likely. Cash-in on the Madden-style balling while you can.
5. Detroit Lions (1-0 ATS/1-0 OU)
The Lions turnaround is coming. It was evident in Week 1 when they won and covered in a game they would’ve lost in years past. As usual, it’s on Matthew Stafford’s shoulders to stay healthy can keep this team consistent.
6. Chicago Bears (1-0 ATS/1-0 OU)
Jay Cutler shoots this offense in the foot enough times to make Plaxico Burress cringe, but what we saw was an impressive team effort against the Falcons Sunday. The defense held the new “Greatest Show on Turf” to one touchdown and Matt Forte looked like Marshall Faulk-light in Mike Martz’ offense.
7. Buffalo Bills (1-0 ATS/ 1-0 OU)
Believe it. The Bills have that sleeper bet musk that fattens wallets. A solid running game, an emerging passing game, an improving defense and better schedule. Last year the Bills had one of the most difficult schedules in the league and the biggest turnover margin; still went 8-7-1 ATS.
8. Washington Redskins (1-0 ATS/1-0 OU)
Another shocker in the top 10, but not if you saw the complete game the Redskins put together against the New York Giants. The run game and defense is above average and Rex Grossman played like he deserves the nickname “Sexy Rexy.”
9. Atlanta Falcons (0-1 ATS/1-0 OU)
We’re not ready to give up on the Falcons just yet, they went 11-5 ATS last season. There’s just too much talent on both sides. However, either “Matty Ice” needs to take the next step or the coaching staff needs to get back to a run-heavy, ball-control style that smothered opponents in years past.
10. New York Jets (0-1 ATS/1-0 OU)
We understand they lost ATS versus the Dallas Cowboys, but the Jets lost 10-9 last year in Week 1 and went on to cover five in a row. The defense is still elite and GQ QB Mark Sanchez displayed ability to help the offense not hold it back.
11. Miami Dolphins (0-1 ATS/1-0 OU)
The Dolphins didn’t cover, but the offense went Dan Marino versus the Patriots in Week 1. Only thing missing was that top 10 defense that helped them go .500 ATS last year. If the O keeps rolling and the D gets going this could be a bet to be reckoned with.
12. New Orleans Saints (0-1 ATS/1-0 OU)
Never trust defenses that are 100 percent reliant on big plays; that’s the Saints D. Though Drew Brees will carry them to victories ATS, their boom-or-bust defensive style will burn bettors often.
13. Houston Texans (1-0 ATS/0-1 OU)
Am we supposed to believe the Texans’ days of underachieving straight up and ATS are over because they beat up on the Manning-less Colts? Too many questions about the run game and the new 3-4 defense still linger, and they are coming off a disappointing 6-10 ATS 2010 season.
14. Dallas Cowboys (1-0 ATS/1-0 OU)
Dallas is a tough team to rank after Week 1. On one hand they covered against one of the top teams in the AFC, on the other they blew a 14-point lead and lost straight up. After that choke Cowboys fans don’t trust Tony Romo so how can bettors? “LeBromo” will be Romo’s new nickname if he gags versus San Francisco in Week 2.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1 ATS/1-0 OU)
What plagued the Steelers in the Super Bowl was on display versus the Ravens: Ugly turnovers and a defense that’s a step too slow. The defensive problems should be a bigger concern for bettors as it has bailed Big Ben out of bad sacks and interceptions in the past.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0 ATS/0-1 OU)
The Jacksonville Jaguars aren’t great, but as a wager they’re a fairly easy riddle to solve: If they can’t run effectively, they can’t cover. Last year the Jags were 7-0 ATS when Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 100 yards or more; when he was st
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The Texans got some satisfaction against the rival Colts in Week 1, trouncing them 34-7 in Houston with Kerry Collins at quarterback for Indy instead of Peyton Manning. That made them easy winners against the NFL odds for the contest.
Matt Schaub completed 17 of his 24 pass attempts for 220 yards in the win over Indianapolis, with one touchdown pass and two interceptions. Star running back Arian Foster (hamstring) sat out Week 1, leaving backfield duties to Ben Tate (116 yards and a TD) and Derrick Ward (39 yards and a TD) – who suffered a sprained ankle.
Andre Johnson had seven catches for 95 yards and a touchdown in that contest.
The Dolphins didn't have the benefit of playing a team missing their starting QB in Week 1, getting blitzed 38-24 by Tom Brady and the Patriots on Monday Night Football.
Dolphins QB Chad Henne put up some good numbers against New England, going 30 of 49 for 416 yards passing with two touchdowns and one interception while also rushing for 59 yards and a score. Brandon Marshall had seven catches for 139 yards that day.
The Dolphins and Texans last met in December 2009 in Miami, with Houston winning 27-20 as a 2-point road underdog. For Sunday's matchup the Texans are favored by 3 points on the road on the NFL betting lines at the Bodog Sportsbook, with the OVER/UNDER for the contest at 47.5 points.
Houston is also up to 12/1 on the Super Bowl futures, thanks in large part to their chief competition in the division missing their franchise player.
Get all your NFL odds at Bodog Sportsbook.