NFL Betting Picks

Hi guys, I will share my toughts about the upcoming NFL season games



This is definitely a public bet, as it seems like the sharps are all on the 49ers to cover this small spread. I just don't see it, similar to the Monday night game with the Giants, when the Lions won outright as a dog. The eye test says that the 49ers are bad and the Rams are on the upswing and that this is mostly a betting line overreaction to Week 2 performances.

The Rams lost by a touchdown to the Redskins at home when Jared Goff threw a pick to kill a potential game-tying drive by the Rams. The Redskins were desperate to win, though, and they were able to maintain a good strategy of churning out yards on the ground before letting Kirk Cousins take over in the fourth quarter. That concerns me a little bit as Carlos Hyde has been a beast for the 49ers, but the Rams should have an easier time containing him as he is literally the 49ers' only offensive option. The Redskins are a very talented offensive team with a host of weapons. The 49ers are not.

The close game against the Seahawks is also a deceiving result for the 49ers. The Seahawks, despite their name recognition, are not going to be good this year. Russell Wilson has regressed and has no protection in the pocket and their rushing game is putrid. The Rams get better protection for Goff, who also has a better arm than Wilson, and they have a way better rushing game with Todd Gurley. I think the Rams will bounce back and be methodical on the ground and through the air, while their defense will force a few turnovers by the 49ers.

betblog.com/picks/435926...o-49ers-los-angeles-rams

My prediction:
Pick: Los Angeles Rams -2.5
Odds: 1.833
Bookie: Pinnacle

Lost 39 - 41

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

This game is between the vikings and the bears a divisional game on monday night football. The bears will be starting a rookie qb making his first ever start vs the very good vikings d is a recipe for disaster in my opinion. The vikings will also be getting their qb back sam bradford. He looked amazing in his first game and albeit he may be rusty i think he will outperform the rookie. The vikings d is better, and they have a better qb so i think this should be a good win for the team .

Minnesota Vikings -3 @1.79 Pinnacle

Seattle Seahawks vs Houston Texans

NFL Week 8. Seattle Seahawks are hosting Houston Texans. The odds have dropped down on this spread. The main reason should be DeAndre Hopkins who has missed yesterday practice. There were some issues with the owner comments. Anyways, Seattle has started the season 1-2 and a lot of fans, as well as the experts, have thought that it is over for Seattle. But we see a small 2-0 run from the Seahawks with the win against L.A. Rams on the road including. Seattle has a better defense no doubt. The offense has struggled so far. Hoston defense will play without Cushing, Mercilus and J. J. Watt. Easy win for Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks -6.5 @1.884 Pinnacle

SHARPS LAYING CHALK WITH THE CHIEFS IN SATURDAY'S NFL WILD CARD ACTION



The NFL’s wild-card weekend has brought a bit of wild line movement to the sportsbooks. Covers checks in on the action for Saturday’s two games, with insights from Devyn Brackett, sports analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker-eu.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -7; Move: -7.5; Move: -8; Move: -9; Move: -8.5; Move: -9

Kansas City won its first five games SU and ATS, and was the buzz of the league for doing so, but then had a horrendous midseason stretch of 1-6 SU and ATS. The Chiefs (10-6 SU and ATS) righted the ship in the late going, winning and cashing four straight, capped by a 27-24 victory at Denver as a 3-point underdog in Week 17.

Tennessee (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) had to win on the last weekend to get into the postseason. And while it wasn’t pretty, the Titans did just that, edging Jacksonville 15-10 as a 2.5-point home chalk. That effort certainly didn’t convince many bettors to get on Tennessee.

“We took a large bet on the Chiefs, driving that number up to 9,” Bracket said, noting that hefty wager came in on Friday afternoon. “We also took a $10,000 bet on the Titans moneyline.”

Bookmaker-eu opened Kansas City -7 and spent most of the week at -9, and it might not stop there. (Find more online sportsbooks and reviews at OddsShark-com).

“This spread is trending toward double digits, as none of the squares see the Titans as a club to back, and the sharps have been fading them the last month or so,” Cooley said. “Currently, we have more than 75 percent of the money on Kansas City.”

Cooley noted the total opened 44.5, ticked up to 45, then down to 44 due to what he termed “respected action,” but he said there’s not much liability to the under. CG has primarily bounced between 44 and 44.5 all week, and Brackett said the ideal result for the book would be the Chiefs winning but not covering, and the total staying under.

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams – Open: -6; Move: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5

Defending NFC champion Atlanta went down to the wire in qualifying for a return postseason trip. The Falcons (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS) fended off Carolina 22-10 as a 5-point home favorite in Week 17, wrapping up the No. 6 seed and the chance defend their conference crown.

Los Angeles was among a few huge surprises this season, jumping up and winning the NFC West. The third-seeded Rams (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) already had the division wrapped up heading into Week 17, so they opted to rest quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley, among others. Not surprisingly, L.A. lost to San Francisco 34-13 catching 6 points at home.

“We're seeing strong sharp action on both sides of this line. The public is split as well,” Brackett said, noting CG took a $50,000 pointspread wager on the Falcons on Friday. “We are also seeing money on account on the Falcons moneyline.”

Bookmaker-eu also opened the Rams -6 and got as high as -7 before dipping to 5.5 on Friday.

“Action has been a bit of a roller coaster, as the early money was on Atlanta, and then nothing but Rams money for the next four days,” Cooley said. “Just during the last 24 hours, we’ve attracted more action on the underdog, so we currently have almost 65 percent of the handle on L.A.”

Cooley said the professionals are also hitting the under, taking the total from 49 to 48, while the public is on the over. CG is also seeing sharp play on the under, helping take the total from 49.5 to 47.5 Friday morning, before it ticked back up to 48. Brackett said the Rams winning but not covering, in a high-scoring game, would be ideal at this point.

covers-com/Editorial/Art---ays-NFL-Wild-Card-action

A SATURDAY OF NFL UPSETS LEADS TO A WILD CARD SUNDAY OF UNCERTAINTY AT SPORTSBOOKS



With two upsets already in the books, the NFL playoffs head into the second day of wild card games. Covers checks in on the action for today’s two matchups, with insights from Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for Bookmaker-eu.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: -7; Move: -7.5; Move: -9; Move: -8.5; Move: -8; Move: -9; Move: -7.5; Move: -8.5; Move: -9

Jacksonville, the AFC’s No. 3 seed, had a nice run starting at midseason, going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS to take control of the AFC South. And it was a good thing the Jaguars (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) made that run, as they lost their last two regular-season games, including a 15-10 slog at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog in Week 17.

Buffalo (9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) is easily the luckiest playoff participant this year, getting into the tournament when Cincinnati beat Baltimore on a fourth-and-12 touchdown pass from midfield in the final minute of a Week 17 contest. That, coupled with the Bills’ 22-16 victory over Miami as a 2.5-point favorite, got Buffalo the sixth and final seed.

Line movement on this 1:05 p.m. ET kickoff has been quite volatile at CG books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip. Early on, the number went straight from 7.5 to 9, and on Saturday, it went directly from 9 to 7.5 before rebounding back to 9.

“Seventy-five percent of account money is on Jacksonville, while we’re fairly even over the counter,” Bernanke said of pointspread betting at CG. “Sixty percent of account moneyline bets are on Jacksonville, while 70 percent of over-the-counter moneyline bets are on Buffalo.”

As CG often notes, its sharper players bet on account, while the public represents the bulk of over-the-counter cash.

Bookmaker-eu opened the Jags -7.5 and reached 9 by Tuesday, where the line remained through Saturday night. (Find more online sportsbooks and reviews at OddsShark-com)

“Jacksonville has been a pretty consistent smart play all year, and the pros didn’t back off the Jags this week,” Cooley said. “The public is on the chalk as well, so we have more than 70 percent of the money on that side. Our biggest total liability of the weekend is this game’s under, as the sharps hit it early and the squares are expecting a defensive battle as well.”

Bookmaker-eu opened the total at 40 and got to 39 Saturday, before ticking up to 39.5. Bernanke said CG is seeing 80 percent of money on the total backing the under, moving from 40 to 39.5.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints – Open: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -6.5; Move: -6

New Orleans claimed the NFC South and the No. 4 seed in the playoffs, largely due to an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS tear after losing its first two games. The Saints (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) finished with a 31-24 loss at Tampa Bay as a 6-point chalk.

Carolina (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) returned to the playoffs as a wild card, after missing out last season following a run to the Super Bowl. The Panthers also enter the postseason on a losing note, falling 22-10 at Atlanta catching 5 points last week.

“Eighty percent of account money is on the Saints, and 80 percent of over-the-counter money is on the Saints,” Bernanke said of very lopsided pointspread betting at CG books. However, on the moneyline - +225 for Carolina on Saturday night – it was a different story. “Three times more Carolina bets on account, and three times more Carolina bets over the counter.”

Bookmaker-eu opened the Saints -5.5, got to 7 at the high point and since Thursday has been at 6.5. Cooley is hoping there’s no need for another upward tick.

“We'd rather not see this get to a touchdown, but that's where we're headed at the moment,” he said. “We know that the squares will be taking the favorite and over in the wild-card finale. But if we move to -7, it’s likely we’ll see a lot of value players enter the fold with Carolina. Which we may need, but at this point, we’re where we want to be on the handle.”

Meanwhile, on the total, CG opened at 48.5 and has been at 48 since Thursday, with Bernanke noting that through Saturday night, 70 percent of money on the total is backing the under.

covers-com/Editorial/Art----nfl-totals-nfl-playoffs

I'm not specialist about NFL, but i will gladly follow it

SHARP BETTORS BANKING ON FAVORITES IN SUNDAY'S NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND MATCHUPS



Two rematches from the regular season wrap up the NFL’s divisional playoff round on this mid-January Sunday. Covers checks in on the action and line movement for both games, with insights from Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -7; Move: None

AFC No. 2 seed Pittsburgh suffered a blowout home loss to Jacksonville back on Oct. 8, tumbling 30-9 as a 7.5-point favorite in a game that saw Ben Roethlisberger throw five interceptions. But the Steelers (13-3 SU, 7-9 ATS) have lost just once since then, and it was hardly embarrassing: a 27-24 home setback to No. 1 seed New England as a 2.5-point underdog in Week 15. Mike Tomlin’s Troops earned a bye with a 10-1 SU run (5-6 ATS), finishing the regular season with a 28-24 win over Cleveland as a 5-point home chalk.

The third-seeded Jaguars (11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS) lost their last two regular-season outings, but held it together in the wild-card round at home. Jacksonville won an offensive eyesore 10-3 over No. 6 seed Buffalo, coming up just short as an 8-point fave last week.

“Bettors were not impressed with Jacksonville. Bettors here are not believing in Blake Bortles and that offense, and they don’t think lightning can strike twice, beating the Steelers as they did earlier in the year with those five interceptions,” Bernanke said. “Three times more money on Pittsburgh on account, and it’s 85 percent Pittsburgh money over the counter.”

Bernanke said moneyline wagering was also strong on the Steelers, at 90 percent of account money and 66 percent of over-the-counter cash.

Bookmaker.eu also opened Pittsburgh -7, but had a couple spins at 7.5 during the week before sticking at 7 since Wednesday morning.

“Not much to report on the action here, with very little adjustment,” Cooley said of activity for this 1:05 p.m. ET clash. “We've got a few sharps on each side of the spread, and the public bettors are almost split as well, which is a bit surprising considering it’s Pittsburgh. Currently, the money handle favors the Steelers 60/40.”

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -5

Minnesota rode third-string quarterback Case Keenum pretty much all season long en route to the NFC’s No. 2 seed and a bye week. The Vikings (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) finished the regular season on an 11-1 SU tear (9-3 ATS), capped by a 23-10 victory over Chicago as a 13.5-point home favorite.

New Orleans (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS) lost at Minnesota in its season opener, 29-19 as a 3-point pup, and fell at home to New England in Week 2. But the Saints followed that with eight consecutive wins (7-1 ATS) on their way to the NFC South title and the No. 4 seed. Drew Brees and Co. opened the playoffs with a 31-26 home victory over No. 5 seed Carolina laying 6.5 points at home last week.

“No surprise that the public is siding with the Saints, as they have 70 percent of that action,” Cooley said. “The pros have really only been interested in Minnesota, and they like the Vikings quite a bit. The over in this game is our biggest total liability of the weekend, as both sharps and squares are expecting points.”

That action took the total at Bookmaker.eu from the opener of 45 up to 47.

CG books also opened Minnesota -4, and the line reached 5.5 by Wednesday night before ticking back to 5 a day later and then 4.5 late Saturday night.

“Two times more Minnesota money on account, and fairly even over the counter,” Bernanke said of pointspread activity, while noting that the Saints had a 2/1 margin on account in moneyline wagering.

Further, like Bookmaker.eu, CG bettors are expecting points in this 4:40 p.m. ET kickoff.

“Ninety percent of all dollars on the total are on the over, on account and over the counter,” Bernanke said, adding that took the total from 44 to 46.5.

covers.com/Editorial/Art...ivisional-Round-matchups

Vegas bookmakers backing Brady's Patriots in Super Bowl



MINNEAPOLIS (Reuters) - Las Vegas casinos are joining the Tom Brady fan club since their share of what is expected to be a record year for Super Bowl wagers will increase if the quarterback’s New England Patriots beat the Philadelphia Eagles.

The defending champion Patriots are 4-1/2 point favourites heading into the National Football League’s championship game in Minneapolis, with the bulk of the bets still to come in ahead of Sunday’s 6:30 p.m. ET (2330 GMT) kickoff.

For MGM Resorts International (MGM.N), which operates 10 sports books on the Las Vegas Strip, the early action has them pulling for the Patriots to win but not cover the spread.

Jay Rood, vice president of the race and sports book at MGM Resorts, said he was already seeing good money coming in and was optimistic that this year’s Super Bowl wagers would be big.

“It’s a great match-up and the Patriots fanbase brings out really strong players,” Rood said in an interview.

“And gamblers are used to playing the Patriots during the regular season because they perform well during the regular season most of the time and that sort of familiarity is sort of comforting to a lot of players.”

The $138.5 million in Super Bowl bets that was wagered in Nevada’s sports books last year easily surpassed the previous high of $132.5 million set the previous year, according to the Nevada Gaming Control Board.

This year’s match-up, featuring a Patriots team seeking their third title in four seasons, and an Eagles outfit seeking their first Super Bowl, is expected to set a new mark for betting on the championship game in Nevada.

“It’s a good match-up,” said Mike Lawton, senior research analyst for the Nevada Gaming Control Board. “Obviously the Patriots are going to attract a lot of attention, so are the Eagles. The economy is doing good and that’s going to help.”

Aside from more traditional bets, gamblers can take a chance on proposition bets, like deciding which team will score first, whether a player will leave the game with a concussion and what colour liquid will be poured on the winning coach.

Among some of the more unique proposition bets are how many times U.S. President Donald Trump will tweet during the game, how long Pink will take to sing the national anthem and how many times Brady’s supermodel wife Gisele Bundchen will be shown during the live broadcast.

uk.reuters.com/article/u...super-bowl-idUKKBN1FN0GF

Nice info, maybe someone knows where i can watch superbowl online? (free) i would like to make a bet for fun

Probably will be on reddit somewhere

NFL identifies four core principles to develop US sports betting

NFL Chief Commissioner Roger Goodell has issued an official statement, confirming the pro-league’s position with regards to US betting following last week’s Supreme Court repeal of PASPA’s federal mandate.

Goodell and the NFL have been amongst the staunchest opponents of US licensed sports betting, defending the league’s anti-gambling stance on the basis of protecting the sport’s integrity and preventing harm to its stakeholders (athletes, franchises, sponsors, universities etc…). In the missive, Goodell and NFL executives urged for Congress to ‘enact uniformed standards for states’ that will move to implement licensed sports betting facilities.

The NFL has urged Congress to develop a uniformed betting framework, guided by the following core principles:

* The development of substantial consumer betting protections.

* All sports leagues must be able to protect content and intellectual properties.

* Fans and audiences must have reliable access to official league data & information.

* Law enforcement must have resources to monitor betting markets, and the capabilities to penalise and prosecute bad actors at home and abroad.

Goodell maintains that the NFL will prioritise the league’s integrity above all matters related to gambling. He noted: “Our fans, our players and our coaches deserve to know that we are doing everything possible to ensure no improper influences affect how the game is played on the field. This week’s ruling by the Supreme Court has no effect on that unwavering commitment”.

Following years of debate on state-sanctioned sports betting, Goodell is confident that the NFL can adjust to the changes and challenges that sports betting will demand from US pro sports governance.

“We have spent considerable time planning for the potential of broadly legalised sports gambling and are prepared to address these changes in a thoughtful and comprehensive way,” he said, “including substantial education and compliance training for our clubs, players, employees and partners. These efforts include supporting common sense legislation that protects our players, coaches and fans and maintains public confidence in our games.”

NFL owners have approved a new policy that requires players to stand for the national anthem when they are on the field.

The decision was announced on Wednesday by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell during the league's spring meeting in Atlanta.

It was also stressed that players would be allowed to protest, but only by staying in the dressing rooms for the Star-Spangled Banner.

Any violations of the policy would result in fines against the team and not the players.

"This season, all league and team personnel shall stand and show respect for the flag and the anthem," NFL Commissioner Goodell said.

"Personnel who choose not to stand for the anthem may stay in the locker room until after the anthem has been performed."

Goodell also defended protesting players after they were called 'unpatriotic', by U.S. President Donald Trump.

"It was unfortunate that on-field protests created a false perception among many that thousands of NFL players were unpatriotic," Goodell continued. "This is not and was never the case."

Former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick began kneeling during the national anthem in 2016, a quiet but powerful protest against police brutality and racial inequities in the justice system.

PUBLIC AND PROS RIDING WITH GANG GREEN IN FRIDAY'S WEEK 3 NFL PRESEASON ACTION



The NFL preseason’s dress-rehearsal week continues tonight, with six games on the docket. Covers checks in on the action and odds movement for three of those contests, with insights from D.J. Fields, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

New York Giants at New York Jets – Open: -1; Move: Pick; Move: +1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -3

Both teams get to play on their home field at MetLife Stadium, in a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff. Eli Manning and the rest of the Giants’ starters should go into the third quarter, although first-round draft pick Saquon Barkley (hamstring strain) is not expected to play. The G-Men beat Detroit 30-17 as a 3-point road pup last week.

Rookie QB Sam Darnold might start tonight for the Jets, and he’ll certainly see a lot of action after getting plenty of first-team reps in practice this week. The rest of the starters will play at least the first half. Last week, the Jets gave up a field goal as time expired, losing to Washington 15-13 in a pick ‘em game.

“This one is all about the Jets so far,” Fields said. “When we opened the game, action was pretty divided. We even moved to the Giants as a 1-point favorite briefly. After the opening discord, the consensus seems to be that the Jets are the play. Both public and pro money is riding on Gang Green, as 70 percent of the handle and 65 percent of the wager count favor the Jets.”

New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers – Open: -2; Move: -1; Move: Pick; Move: -1.5; Move: -1; Move: Pick

New England plans to play most of its starters into the third quarter for another 7:30 p.m. ET start, but whether Tom Brady is in that long is uncertain. Brady played the first half last week, when the Patriots beat Philadelphia 37-20 as a 4-point home favorite.

Carolina quarterback Cam Newton and the starters could play through the third quarter. The Panthers have won and cashed in both their preseason tilts this year, including a 27-20 victory over Miami as a 3-point home chalk last week.

“The sharp money seems divided, but the Pats are leading both the handle and wager count by a 2/1 ratio,” Fields said. “The Under is drawing enough attention that we’ve had to move down from 46.5 to 45. In what is a seemingly recurring theme for the past decade, we will be rooting against the Pats.”

The total ticked down to 44.5 this afternoon at Bookmaker.eu.

Green Bay Packers at Oakland Raiders – Open: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -4; Move: -6.5; Move: -7; Move: -6; Move: -5.5

Green Bay has decided this isn’t dress-rehearsal week after all, as it plans to rest several starters in a 10:30 p.m. ET matchup, likely including QB Aaron Rodgers. The Packers hammered Pittsburgh last week, 51-34 laying 5.5 points at home.

On the flip side, QB Derek Carr and the rest of Oakland’s starters are expected to play into the second quarter. The Raiders enter off a 19-15 loss to the Los Angeles Rams giving 2 points on the road.

“This one has been a bit of a roller coaster,” Fields said. “When both quarterbacks were going to play, the Raiders opened as 3-point faves. Once word came out that Rodgers was out, we shot up to 7. Currently, we are backing it back down to 5.5, awaiting news if Carr will play. If he winds up sitting, we expect to drop down to 4 or 4.5. The handle is currently split right down the middle, but the wager count is 70 percent in favor of the Packers.”

Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.

Let's get this thread back up and running... Listen, I tried out for QB this week for Denver!! LOL The plan to run this kid out of the practice squad against the Saints? NOT A GOOD PLAN! I cannot see the Saints failing to do what they should do, and that is taking this win emphatically! I suggest the N.O Saints Halftime -7.5 as a betting option for Sunday!

New Orleans -7.5 1st Half V Denver -115

New Orleans -7.5 1st Half V Denver -115 =

And I gave it away as a bet on the site as well...
betblog.com/picks/677423...oncos-new-orleans-saints

Does anyone need another NFL tip for the Monday night game?

betblog.com/picks/677489...-eagles-seattle-seahawks

There is the link to your 1st Half bet to make it 2 - 0 for me with plays posted on your dead forum lol

Philadelphia V Seattle 1st Half -3.5 +103

Philadelphia V Seattle 1st Half -3.5 +103 = 😉

That's 2 - 0! Is there life on this planet?

Although I'm not an American football fan it always feels good to see someone showing good results and winning. Keep going 😁

As the years go by, the Football League doesn't change and sets the same rules at the beginning of the season. Soccer at least changes the rules to make the game as objective as possible. Sometimes it's because of this that I bet on sports and win.