Manne wrote:
It took a little doing, but Chad Mendes will finally get his title shot against Jose Aldo at UFC 142. Whether he comes to regret a shot at the Nova Uniao product will remain to be seen, but our ability to make money on this event is never in question! Below is my comparison betting odds for the fights, as well as some valid props. I’ve also included a confidence rating that gives you an idea of how much wiggle room we have with the line. High confidence indicates few surprises and plenty of footage to watch of both men, while a low rating means there are multiple variables or a lack of information present on new fighters.
Now, onto the fights!
Jose Aldo -200
Chad Mendes +160
Props: Fight Starts 3rd Round
Confidence: Moderate
While Mendes was passed up for a title shot last time around, he finally gets his chance to win the strap at UFC 142. Mendes has beaten all comers in his career thus far, using a fast and simple striking style along with his lightning shot. On paper, this could be a recipe for beating Aldo, and you have to give that potential outcome the respect it deserves. Overall I think Aldo has the speed to catch Mendes coming in on the shot with a fast knee and work his crippling leg kicks, but this fight is more than likely going into late rounds. Between Aldo’s somewhat passive style of late and Mendes being a gritty young fighter, lay down your units on this fight starting the 3rd round.
Vitor Belfort -140
Anthony Johnson +110
Props: Belfort KOTN, Johnson KOTN
Confidence: Moderate
In what could be an instant classic, old school striker Vitor Belfort welcomes Anthony Johnson to the MW division. This is a tough fight to call, as Johnson has shown he’s not afraid to play the blanket to get a win over superior strikers. The real question is, can the former WW Johnson take down the former LHW Belfort, or will he be forced to use his kickboxing against a lethal striker? While Belfort has been worked over on the mat before, the list of men who have pulled off the task make Johnson’s wrestling skills pale considerably. I think this fight ends up fairly close, as either can land KO blows, but I slightly favor Belfort’s hand speed and accurate power punches for the win. Betting wise, this will be one to avoid for the most part, although I recommend a play on both men winning the KOTN award, as either one can pull it off.
Erick Silva -260
Carlo Prater +200
Props: Fight Ends Inside Distance/Under
Confidence: High
Hot prospect Erick Silva will take on journeyman and late replacement Carlo Prater in what could end up as a serious war. For those unfamiliar, Prater is an old school Luta Livre and BJJ fighter who has spent most of his career on the mat, picking up a few impressive wins along the way. While his overall skill set has been lacking at this level, he makes for a dangerous match for green fighters that won’t have the submission defense to avoid his entanglements. Silva isn’t green though, and with his natural speed and killer instinct, this is a fighter he can easily take from Prater early and never give back. I suspect the line on Silva will start out of reach, so I recommend a bet on ITD. Both men are fast starters and Prater tends to wilt under pressure, setting up a stoppage win for Silva in his home country.
Rousimar Palhares -240
Mike Massenzio +190
Props: Palhares by Submission
Confidence: High
Leglock specialist Rousimar Palhares takes on unlikely opponent Mike Massenzio in what should be a worrisome fight for Massenzio. Palhares is coming into this bout off a dominant win over Dan Miller and one would expect he’d draw a tougher opponent here, but Massenzio could have some surprises for the Brazilian. Massenzio is a solid wrestler with submission skills, but has always had trouble breaking into even the middle of the division, and this fight isn’t going to be an easy one for him at all. Aside from a stall and brawl attack by Massenzio, I can’t see him pulling this off if this fight touches the mat. Hit the Palhares by Sub prop, as Masssenzio’s legs will be in peril here at some point.
Sam Stout -130
Thiago Tavares EV
Props: Fight Goes Distance/Over
Confidence: Moderate
Two fixtures of the Lightweight division will face off, as kickboxer Sam Stout faces BJJ ace Thiago Tavares. Stout hasn’t changed much in the last several years, but his style of crisp kickboxing, takedown defense and token takedowns has seen him through some tough bouts. Tavares comes into this with his own fast and accurate hands, but has moved towards using his underrated submission skills more in his last several fights. The test here will be if Tavares can mix up his attack and score takedowns, and avoid being outpointed by Stout throughout this fight. While Tavares has a decent bag of tricks, Stout’s ability to work from the outside and force long shots should give him a comfortable amount of space here. The Over will be the safest play for this fight, but considering Stout’s history of long bouts, I don’t think we’ll be finding much value here anywhere.
Mike Pyle -160
Ricardo Funch +130
Props: Funch by KO
Confidence: High
Cagey veteran Mike Pyle will step into the cage for his eighth appearance, taking on returning fighter Ricardo Funch. Pyle is one of the most underrated grapplers in the division with is quick bottom submissions and surprising strength in the clinch. Using newfound boxing skills, Pyle has set himself up with a solid game of range control with opportunistic takedowns that saw him put a few wins together before his previous fight. Funch is a cookie-cutter Brazilian fighter with more muscle than necessary, not enough of a bottom game, and not enough wrestling to compete with UFC-caliber wrestlers. I think Pyle can control this fight and either work takedowns or submit off his back if Funch can get a hold of him. I’d recommend the straight bet if odds are favorable, but keep an eye out for a F
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2012/01/16
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The heavyweights on Tuesday separately announced that they have agreed to face each other at UFC 143 on Feb. 4 in Las Vegas. It will be the start of a four-fight UFC contract that Werdum recently signed.
A perennial top-10 heavyweight, Werdum spent the last two years competing in Strikeforce because UFC released him after an October 2008 knockout loss to Junior Dos Santos. Including the Dos Santos bout, Werdum went 2-2 in UFC. He was 3-1 for Strikeforce but looked lackluster in his most recent fight, a June 18 affair won by Alistair Overeem via decision.
While Werdum wants to regain momentum, Nelson hopes to build on an Oct. 29 technical knockout win against Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic.
Werdum is the most accomplished pure grappler among MMA heavyweights. Werdum won his weight class' tournament in the 2007 and 2009 editions of the Abu Dhabi Combat Club's submission championships, the most prestigious event in no-gi grappling. He took second in this year's edition. In MMA, his most well-known accomplishment is a submission of Fedor Emelianenko last year that ended the Russian star's aura of invincibility
The biggest edge for Nelson might come in the stand-up game. Nelson has a redoubtable chin and one-punch knockout power from the right side.
He's also a very good heavweight grappler. Nelson uses his weight very well to help control opponents on the ground, and has never been submitted.