Long term picks

Valencia is simply playing well this season and secured second place in the regular season. In the playoffs, home advantage will be important and Valencia will have it. Spaniards are difficult to beat when playing in their home fortress. This season, they have only lost 3 times.

Fenerbahçe has a home advantage in the series. Sharas should also never be underestimated and there is no doubt that he will do everything possible to prepare Fenerbahçe better for the playoffs. On the other hand, towards the end of the season, Žalgiris appears to be a stronger and more mature team. This season, Žalgiris and Masiulis have a 2-0 advantage.

It is hard to believe that all the problems at Fenerbahçe will be fixed in such a short time. Žalgiris has better players, especially Peru has a stronger play-off player. Šaras often uses risky defenses, but there isn't much to risk against Žalgiris. The odds are very good to take.

It's hard to believe that all the problems at Fener will be solved in such a short time. Žalgiris has better players, especially Peru has the better series player. Šaras often applies risky defenses, but there isn't really much to risk against Žalgiris. The odds are good to take. A 3-2 series win, winning the fifth game is almost never achieved by anyone away, so you can put a large bet on the negative series.

It is not easy for anyone to play against Oly, and it will also be difficult for Monaco. Monaco is facing many problems this season. In this context, reaching the playoffs is already a good achievement. Now they are up against the regular season champions. Maybe by chance Monaco could win one game, but overall I believe that Oly will confidently win the series.

Žalgiris lost the first game of the series. Fener took the lead and left Žalgiris behind. Most of Žalgiris players burnt out, especially the bench players did not contribute anything. Despite all the troubles, Žalgiris made a comeback and showed that they can play against Fener. I believe Žalgiris will recover and some players will play at their level. Žalgiris is not at the level this season to lose the series easily.

I have already written about Sweden in my other prediction. I think it is very realistic to make it into the top 10. The song should be in the top 10 for both the jury and televote, and that should be enough for the final table. Historically, Sweden receives a lot of points from the jury. Maybe not all juries will give points for this genre, but there will be juries that will appreciate the Swedish quality. I would also say that the song is suitable for televoting because it is an EDM song, a party song that makes people dance. So it will also receive a good amount of votes from the televote.

Places 11-15 would be a great achievement for Lithuania. In the post-Covid Eurovision, Lithuania usually occupies around those places. Last year, we couldn't reach the top 15, only achieving 16th place. I believe Lithuania is a better country than we are credit for and are often overlooked. In the last 2 years, our performances and songs have received a lot of hype, but somehow resulted in underperformance. This year, we are not seen as potential high achievers, but our song and performance have the potential to achieve a decent result.

The song itself is not great, we must admit. But it is suitable for Eurovision performance. Lion himself is artistic, and the stage becomes a theater, making the song more interesting. Plus, the image helps to stand out. Historically, Lithuania does not perform well with juries, but a performance like this could earn us a lot of points.

Estonia makes it to the final, while Latvia and Lithuania do not make it through. The bet is won. I don't think this scenario is out of the fantasy realm.
Although the Lion's voice is great, the song itself is not clear if it will hook Europe like Lithuania did for us, and the context is different as well. Sometimes these artistic experiments are not understood. Additionally, in the semi-finals, Lithuania does not have its loyal friends: the UK, Ireland, Norway, Latvia. Points for nothing. I see Lithuania's chances of making it to the final as 50/50.
Latvia appears in the second semi-final, where the competition is much tougher than the first, as overall the songs in the second semi-final are better than the first. In the second semi-final, it's clear except for Azerbaijan. All other countries are still fighting for a spot in the final. In the semi-finals, I see Latvia in 8th-12th place.
Meanwhile, Estonia is competing in the weaker first semi-final along with Lithuania. The song is simple and for me, at least, it evokes nostalgia. I would say it should definitely outrank San Marino, Portugal, and Georgia, but who knows beyond that. But the odds are worth paying attention to.
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For three consecutive years, the favorite song of the audience ranked very close to Peru and took 2nd or 3rd place:
2023 - Käärijä
2024 - Baby Lasagna
2025 - Tommy Cash

This year, the most joyful and possibly the audience's favorite song could be Greece. I don't know if this year's Greek song will be as successful as the ones mentioned, but it definitely has potential. The song is truly unique. As a plus, I see that this year there are more countries supporting Greece as usual in Eurovision. Romania and Bulgaria have returned. However, the number of countries from the Balkan region has decreased. This year, Iceland, Ireland, and the Netherlands are not participating.

If I had to pick a winner right now, I would probably choose Denmark. There isn't a clear favorite yet. Finland is currently in the lead, but not quite convincingly and personally I don't see them winning at the moment. The contest is still about a month and a half away, so the odds will continue to change.

From what I've heard, Denmark just gives off 'winner vibes'. Their performance is good, engaging, polished, and Eurovision-ready. I don't think there is much to change before the big Eurovision. The performer has a strong, confident vocal. The last minute is more energetic and well-staged, which allows for a more memorable performance at Eurovision.

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