Long term picks

Well for me, it personally doesn't hold much value anymore, even though s1mple was once a top player and was called the "prime" in the past. He now plays at a lower tier level and his recent matches on bc.game were disappointing, losing against weaker teams. The Mongolians are a different level team and I believe they should close it out in a couple of maps.

Estonia makes it to the final, while Latvia and Lithuania do not make it through. The bet is won. I don't think this scenario is out of the fantasy realm.
Although the Lion's voice is great, the song itself is not clear if it will hook Europe like Lithuania did for us, and the context is different as well. Sometimes these artistic experiments are not understood. Additionally, in the semi-finals, Lithuania does not have its loyal friends: the UK, Ireland, Norway, Latvia. Points for nothing. I see Lithuania's chances of making it to the final as 50/50.
Latvia appears in the second semi-final, where the competition is much tougher than the first, as overall the songs in the second semi-final are better than the first. In the second semi-final, it's clear except for Azerbaijan. All other countries are still fighting for a spot in the final. In the semi-finals, I see Latvia in 8th-12th place.
Meanwhile, Estonia is competing in the weaker first semi-final along with Lithuania. The song is simple and for me, at least, it evokes nostalgia. I would say it should definitely outrank San Marino, Portugal, and Georgia, but who knows beyond that. But the odds are worth paying attention to.
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For three consecutive years, the favorite song of the audience ranked very close to Peru and took 2nd or 3rd place:
2023 - Käärijä
2024 - Baby Lasagna
2025 - Tommy Cash

This year, the most joyful and possibly the audience's favorite song could be Greece. I don't know if this year's Greek song will be as successful as the ones mentioned, but it definitely has potential. The song is truly unique. As a plus, I see that this year there are more countries supporting Greece as usual in Eurovision. Romania and Bulgaria have returned. However, the number of countries from the Balkan region has decreased. This year, Iceland, Ireland, and the Netherlands are not participating.

If I had to pick a winner right now, I would probably choose Denmark. There isn't a clear favorite yet. Finland is currently in the lead, but not quite convincingly and personally I don't see them winning at the moment. The contest is still about a month and a half away, so the odds will continue to change.

From what I've heard, Denmark just gives off 'winner vibes'. Their performance is good, engaging, polished, and Eurovision-ready. I don't think there is much to change before the big Eurovision. The performer has a strong, confident vocal. The last minute is more energetic and well-staged, which allows for a more memorable performance at Eurovision.

401 coefficient

First long-term bet for the new full season. Chelsea's coefficient is still over 2, which means they will finish in the Top 4, and I have no doubts about that. Last season, they finished fourth and strengthened their team impressively at the end of the season. It was clear that this young team is a force to be reckoned with, winning two trophies and beating PSG gave them a lot of confidence going forward. So yes, Chelsea will play Champions League football, but in terms of the main competition for the fourth place, I see Newcastle as the main rival and I don't think they have strengthened enough to challenge for it. As for the other teams, United and Tottenham? United have made too much progress in just one season and Tottenham have a lower level than Chelsea, plus they are also in the Champions League. Aston Villa seems destined for relegation and I don't see any other contenders. Overall, I believe Chelsea is closer to joining the top three of Arsenal, Manchester City, and Liverpool, rather than fighting for the Top 4 spot, which I don't see them achieving in the upcoming Premier League season.

A little drop was observed in Fenerbahce's stock after their defeat to Olympiacos, but to me it doesn't seem like a tragedy, rather an opportunity. Such losses are very likely and should only strengthen Fenerbahce as the season comes to an end. The team is trained by possibly the best coach in Europe, so I can't imagine the final four without Fenerbahce. Of course, the finals will take place in Greece and it won't be easy, but in the end, everything depends on my assumption that Fenerbahce has over 20% chance of winning the Euroleague.

The West is very competitive. In the past years, it was not clear who would rank in the top 4 - 11.
The Spurs will still be in the mix, and the Rockets look strong. It's too early to count out the Kings.
Curry is 37 years old, Butler is 36, and Draymond is 35, so the core players are getting older and could potentially face the same injuries.

Bucks leaving the East is a serious possibility, especially with such high odds. Giannis is having another incredible season and it doesn't seem like his form will decline. Ryan Rollins is becoming a great player. Kevin Porter Jr is not yet there, but he will be, and if we don't count his non-basketball related issues, he is a great player. AJ Green is a complete sniper who can make shots in every game. Myles Turner is struggling right now, but he will start making shots soon. The recipe for the Bucks is clear - Giannis is the main man and the shooters are placed around him, and with this team, it's possible to win championships.

The main contenders will most likely be Cleveland, 76ers, and Knicks, maybe even Orlando, but it's disappointing and unclear which of them will rise this season.