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Tonight, we have a HUGE game in the NBA as the top 2 seeded teams in the Western Conference face in Denver as 29-13 Denver Nuggets (1st seed) host the 29-14 Golden State Warriors (2nd seed)!
Totals
Denver Nuggets are one of the most under-ish teams in the NBA (10th) when it comes to playing at home, however their percentage of Over/Under is pretty similar. In 21 games at Home this season they have covered 10 total overs (47.6%) and 11 unders (52.4%). It’s a very small gap but they are do have more under games. The total for tonight’s game is 227.5 and the closest the Nuggets have been to that this season was when they were given a 225.5 total against the Clippers in their 121-100 win which covered an Under. There was also a couple times where they were given a 229.5 total which they had an over against Sacramento (126-112) and an under against tonight’s opponents the Warriors (100-98).
Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors are the 2nd most over-ish team playing on the Road this team in total points! They have covered 65% given total point overs and just 35% Unders playing on the road this season (13o-7u). The closest that they’ve been to a 227.5 total (tonight’s total) was 227 against the Clippers and the Knicks which they both covered with an over. Also had 226.5 against the Nets where there was an over and they covered a 228.5 overs against the Suns and the Bulls.
Handicaps
Nuggets have been one of the best Handicap covering Home teams in the NBA this season with a 66.6% of Covered Handicaps at their arena. During their current 12 game home win streak the Nuggets have covered the handicap 9 times which is an astonishing 75% ratio! Nuggets are only priced as underdogs for the 3rd time at home this season tonight and the only other 2 times that they were the underdog they beat their tonight’s opponents Warriors 100-98 who were a 4.5 favourite and then Denver also beat OKC Thunder 109-98 who were priced as 2 point favourites.
Warriors are actually one of the worst teams in covering Handicaps on the Road despite having the best road record in their conference. Warriors have only covered 40% of their handicaps on the Road this season (8-12). The closest the Warriors have been to tonight’s -1 handicap on the road was when they were -2.5 favourites at Utah where they lost 108-103 failing to cover it and when they were tipped as 2 pt underdogs against Milwaukee where they won 105-95 and covered.
Recent H2H in Denver
Denver Nuggets have in fact had great success against the Golden State Warriors at Home. Nuggets are 5-3 (also 5-3 in covered Handicaps) against the Warriors in Steve Kerr era which is since their dominance in 2014 in the NBA began playing at home against them and it’s a rare team that Warriors haven’t been able to dominate, well at least in their arena. The game have also been relatively high scoring (223.2 ppg) except from the one that was played this season in Denver where Nuggets won 100-98 (198 pts).
The last meeting between these teams in Denver was as mentioned early this season and that was in fact the only meeting between these teams this season. Nuggets won a close game 100-98 with a late block by Hernangomez to seal it. During that game Nuggets covered a +4.5 handicap but the given pre-game total 229.5 pts ended up being an under by a massive 31 points.
During the last game the Handicap was as high as -10.5 for the Warriors and as high as -8.5 for Denver as the game seen some crazy runs from both teams.
The highest point total actually rose all the way to 231.5 but at one point it dipped all the way down to 200.5 which was the lowest total during that game and even that total ended up being an under in the end.
Injury News
Nuggets: Michael Porter JR, Jarred Vanderbilt and Isaiah Thomas continue to all be out, but Denver have been without them all season so it won’t affect them. Will Barton has returned to the team and is expected to continue to come off the bench to play limited minutes. Trey Lyles and Gary Harris are both questionable. Lyles could miss his 3rd straight game while Harris has been in and out of the line-up, Denver have adjusted playing well without Harris when he’s out so if he plays it’s only a bonus here.
Warriors: Warriors are still without DeMarcus Cousins who is expected to return later this week and Damian Jones who will likely be out for the season. Warriors have adjusted to playing without Jones and haven’t had Boogie all year so there aren’t any serious blows there. Draymond Green however did get a minor injury last game but did finish the game and is listed as Probable to play tonight.
Match Start – 16th January 2019 – 2am UK Time
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