The Eastern Conference Finals are here and we have the top 2 seeded teams face off against each other as Milwaukee Bucks take on the Toronto Raptors!
Playoff Run for both teams so far
Milwaukee Bucks: Just like throughout the Regular Season, the Bucks have been the most dominant team in the NBA Playoffs by far so far. 8-1 record, sweeping the Pistons then dispatching Boston in 5 the Bucks have clearly proven that they are every bit of legit as they were in the Regular Season and should be considered as Easts favourites. 7 of the 8 Bucks wins came by double digit margin and the average margin of their 8 wins have been exactly 20 points with 5 of those wins being by 20+ pts. The Bucks have been dominant on both ends throughout this post season not only being the 2nd best offensive team but also the 1st BEST defensive team during this run so far!
Toronto Raptors: It hasn’t been quite a straight forward run so far for Toronto, but led by Kawhi Leonard’s incredible play they ended up getting to their first Conference Finals in 3 years! Toronto have dispatched Orlando in 5 after blowing Game 1 and then were taken to the absolute limit by the 76ers as they beat them in 7 with a buzzer beating game winner from Kawhi Leonard who played absolutely out of his mind for Toronto to get them through that series. Raptors have had issues offensively during this run at times as other players not named Kawhi or Siakam have struggled to score consistently, but due to Kawhi’s greatness and their extremely good defense (2nd best in post season) which is going to be especially crucial in this upcoming series they have been able to advance and will now look to make their first ever Finals.
Key Players in this series
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks): Well there’s no doubt who is the most important player on the Bucks and it’s of course Giannis Antetokounmpo. The leading favourite to win the MVP award has continued his incredible play in the post season putting up 27/11/4.5 while shooting 52% from the field while playing great defence as well so far and we could especially see his greatness when he came up against one of the best defensive squads in Boston (3rd best in Post season) when he put up 28/11/5 on 52/41/70 shooting splits so not only did he dominate the paint, but also started to get his 3 point shot to drop in that series but whether that’ll last we’ll have to see. Giannis is clearly one of the most unstoppable forces in the NBA, the most dominant paint scorer, great playmaker, defender, rebounder etc. He is the heart ant soul of this Bucks team and with him playing the way he is, it’s hard to see him have a bad series here even with Toronto being an elite paint protecting team, Giannis already proved that great defences don’t bother him against Boston.
Eric Bledsoe (Bucks): Bledsoe has been a huge key for the Bucks this whole season on both ends and has had some solid moments in the Playoffs already averaging 16/3/4 on 47% shooting while guarding opponents best guards and doing a great job at it as a primary defender on Kyrie especially as Irving had a poor shooting series against Bledsoe and co last round. He definitely has had a much improved run compared to last year. It really is between him and Middleton for 2nd most important, but we got to go with Bledsoe. Bledsoe’s penetration of the ball and whether scoring or playmaking for others from it has been crucial in this post season and defensively he’s their best defensive guard on the team so when it comes to making sure to keeping Lowry quiet, Bledsoe is the main guy expected to do so and if they can keep Kyle Lowry quiet then that would be a big advantage for Milwaukee.
Kawhi Leonard (Raptors): There’s no need of introduction for Playoff Kawhi. A ridiculous run from him so far in this post season. Kawhi is having his best playoff run of his career so far putting up 32/8/3.5 on 54/40/87 shooting splits, he has been the best player of his post season for sure overall. Kawhi is coming off a legendary type series against the 76ers where he put up 34/10/4 on 53% shooting including draining 41 points and a game winner in Game 7 to send Toronto into the ECF. Kawhi’s defense has also been back to his best level and we could see him guarding Milwaukee’s biggest offensive threats offensively like Giannis Middleton or even Bledsoe which will also make him one of the most important defensive players in this series for the Raptors. Kawhi is Toronto’s clear best player, they will go as far as he goes and he will likely need to put up another ridiculous scoring output in this series again if Toronto want to make their first Finals. We really have seen Jordan-Esque type stuff from him in these Playoffs.
Marc Gasol (Raptors): Many may have expected Siakam here, but Marc Gasol will be the 2nd most important player in this series for the Raptors and for the most obvious reason. Guarding Giannis in the paint is going to be Marc Gasol’s main priority and given how great he’s been defensively against Vucevic and Embiid keeping both of them way below their averages, Raptors will need Gasol to be that elite defensive player again. If Marc Gasol and the Raptors can neutralise Giannis in the paint, it could be a huge turning point in this series in Raptors favour. When we saw Giannis get kept quiet in that one game against Boston, the Bucks got killed in that game against before eventually beating them. Marc Gasol WILL HAVE to be consistently great defensively and Toronto will of course need him to score more than he has done so far. Gasol is a polished scorer who can score in the paint and outside of it and given how many options Bucks have offensively, Toronto will also need their others to step up offensively and Marc is one of the players who definitely has the capability to up his averages on the offensive end to 15+ ppg.
Key Factors in this series
Milwaukee Bucks
Depth: Arguably the deepest team in the NBA from a great starting line-up to an elite bench. Bucks depth has been the biggest key in this great Playoff run. Bucks have multiple guys who can score. You got your obvious guys in Bledsoe, Giannis and Middleton but then you have dudes like Mirotic, Lopez, Hill, Ilyasova, Connaughton who have all been stepping up when called upon throughout this season and the post season and now Brogdon is back too. Bucks have 5 guys averaging 10+ ppg in this post season and 8 guys averaging 8+ ppg. This Bucks team can beat you in many different ways thanks to their depth and that’s what makes them so great. Giannis could have an off night and you’d still have to worry about multiple other guys who could all go off. Bucks have the 3rd highest scoring bench in the post season at 37 ppg alongside a very explosive starting line-up. It’s going to be very tough to stop them from scoring because of their depth.
Home Court Advantage and Ability to win on the road: Bucks having home court advantage is a massive factor. They possess the 2nd best home record at 33-8 which is only worse than Denver, they’ve not lost back to back home games in front of their fans and given how dominant they’ve been in their Arena bar that one game against Boston in the Playoffs that they lost, it will be very tough for Toronto to come here and win and the Bucks ability to win on the road also comes into play in this situation. Bucks have a 27-14 road record and 4-0 in post season including winning in Boston twice. Bucks would have to lose 2+ home games if they were to win at least one in Toronto and they’ve beaten the Raptors there both times. Milwaukee’s ability to win on the road in tough arenas is a massive advantage for them because one win in Toronto and all of a sudden they have to lose multiple games at home where they’re near unstoppable anyway.
Toronto Raptors
They need a consistent 3rd scoring option: Raptors just haven’t been able to find that consistent 3rd scorer in this post season so far. With Kawhi putting up 32 and Siakam 21 per game, their 3rd best scoring option Kyle Lowry is only averaging 12 ppg while everyone else average under 10 ppg. Whether it’s Lowry, Gasol, Ibaka or even Green the Raptors will need one or two of those guys to consistently to put up 12-15 ppg in this series. Toronto simply cannot afford to rely on Kawhi and Siakam to be the only consistent scorers in this series because the Bucks are too deep for Toronto to beat them with 2 scoring options. Raptors bench is a massive concern, they are the 2nd worst bench scoring team in these Playoffs at 21.6 ppg with Ibaka being the only consistent contributor, they need someone like VanVleet or Powell to step it up. If the Raptors don’t get consistent scoring from someone else, more than likely they will not have a chance here no matter how great Kawhi performs.
Paint Defence: Raptors have been a nightmare to play against trying to score in the paint against them. The Bucks are the 2nd highest paint scoring team in the playoffs at 49.1 and have the highest paint scorer in the league in Giannis Antetokounmpo. Raptors are a great paint defensive team and this is one battle that they absolutely must win. With Marc Gasol, Ibaka, Siakam even Kawhi at times this team have been able to neutralise opposition PF, Centers throughout this post season and none other than Nikola Vucevic and Joel Embiid will exactly tell you that as both of them were made look far worse than they did in the regular season by facing the Toronto Raptors. Neutralising Bledsoe’s driving, Giannis dominance inside are the 2 biggest keys in this series and if Toronto continue to be a great paint defensive team, they might just be able to quieten down the Bucks MVP Giannis and Bledsoe and by doing that their chances to win the series would drastically improve. Obviously Bucks can still beat you with 3 point shooting, but keeping Bledsoe and Giannis out of the paint would likely neutralise their 3 point shooting and that’s why the Raptors absolutely must protect the paint like they’ve done in this whole post season.
Regular Season H2H
Just like against every other Eastern team, the Bucks won the season series against Toronto 3-1. Bucks have won both road games against the Raptors and split the home games 1-1 meaning the road team has won 3 of 4 meetings between these teams in the Regular Season. The games were relatively close though Milwaukee did win 2 of the games by double figures, only one of them was really a blowout while the other double figure win was actually closely contested until Milwaukee exploded late in the 4th while the other 2 meetings were won by Bucks by 5 and Toronto by 7. Bucks have got the average +- at +6.5 in the 4 meetings against the Raptors this season. The 4 meetings have saw an average PPG of 218 between the teams, we saw 2 very high scoring games that had 233 and 239 points and 2 lower scoring games that saw a total of 197 points and 203 points so the scoring has been inconsistent in the series this year between these teams.
Series Prediction
We’re going with the Bucks in this series. The Milwaukee’s depth is simply going to prove to be too much for Toronto and they will win. Toronto have Kawhi but Milwaukee can match that with Giannis, meanwhile looking at the rest of the rosters the Bucks others are better than Toronto’s others plus the discrepancy in bench contribution is absolutely massive in Bucks favour. Kyle Lowry is going to have to score much more consistently for Toronto if they want to win, but he just cannot be trusted and guarded by Bledsoe more likely than not he’ll be quiet in this series and that will hurt Toronto. Bucks are much better offensively and actually have been better defensively which is something that has been Toronto’s main calling card in this post season and the Bucks are even better than them at that. We will probably see a great duel between Giannis and Kawhi, but Bucks depth will be the biggest X Factor plus home court advantage is in their hands and even if they blow it, their ability to win on the road will get them 1 or 2 in Toronto and no way will they lose 2-3 home games in that case to the Raptors. We got the Bucks in 6/7, preferably 6.
Series Odds (TonyBet)
Bucks to Advance 1.35
Raptors to Advance 3.20
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