UEFA Nations League – Spain vs Croatia Match Preview
Another big UEFA Nations league game! We have Spain hosting world cup finalists Croatia in what shapes up to be a fantastic game and a very crucial one. Spain have a chance to make it two wins out two and gain a huge advantage on top, meanwhile Croatia are playing their first UEFA Nations League game here and are in need of a win because a loss here and they’re already 6 points off the top and would most likely be in fight for relegation with England.
Key Facts
Spain have not lost a competitive home game since 2003 (Losing to Greece 0-1 in Euro 2004 qualifiers). Incredible home record. Their last home loss as a whole was a friendly to Georgia in 2016. They’re pretty much unbeatable at home.
Spain have shown good goal scoring form in 2018 scoring 18 goals in 8 games.
Spain started their UEFA Nations League campaign with an impressive win over England 1-2 at Wembley. Rodrigo was the standout with 1G 1A.
Spain may have struggled during the world cup, but their form as a whole in recent years has been very impressive. They’ve not lost a game in 90 minutes since their loss to Italy in Euro 2016. That’s 25 games in a row.
Spain have not been good defensively recently however. Just 2 clean sheets in last 10 and conceding 13 goals in total during those games which is 1.3 per game.
With Costa not in the team, the highest scorer for Spain in 2018 out of the players that are available to play is Isco with 4.
The last 2 competitive meetings between Spain and Croatia (Euro 2012 and 2016) had a late winner in the 87-88th minute.
This is Croatia’s first competitive game since the world cup. They played a friendly in between against Portugal where they drew 1-1 but it was just a friendly.
Croatia have a strong attack, they scored in every game at the world cup. Totalling 14 goals in 7 games. However, defensively they weren’t very good only keeping two clean sheets and conceding 9 goals in 7 games.
Croatia had 8 different goal scorers during the world cup so they have a variety of options when it comes to scoring goals.
Team News
Spain: In our recent preview against England we already mentioned that Spain are without Costa, Alba, Silva and Pique has retired from International football. All 3 of those players were replaced efficiently with Alonso, Nacho, Saul and Rodrigo who all put in a solid shift especially Rodrigo who played a phenomenal game and got himself a goal and an assist so he’s one player to definitely look out for also Saul scored after being given a start. We shouldn’t expect many changes for Spain, but there is a possibility that Morata could potentially come in for Aspas who was average against England. It’s a relatively new look Spain squad and they were very impressive to start. They dominated possession and cut England open quite a few times. Expect Spain to be on the front foot in this game and dominate possession as they usually do.
Croatia: Croatia are a little depleted going into this match and its not something you’d want when you play Spain away. GK Subasic is out, key CB Lovren is out, Mandzukic is also out. They’re missing 3 very important players which mostly weakens their defende but they still have their world class midfield together with players like Modric, Kovacic, Badelj, Perisic and also Rakitic who should feature. We should expect Croatia to be on the back foot, but they’ll be a massive threat with a ton of creative players and their wing play is something Spain must watch out for. It’s a great chance for Croatia to show the world why they’re the world cup finalists.
Betting Tips and Predictions
We’re looking at two teams that struggle to keep clean sheets. Spain just 2 in the last 10 while Croatia have now failed to keep one in 6 straight so clearly BTTS is a bet worth a look at and we get very good 2.12 odds for a BTTS for two teams who have a ton of creativity and struggle defensively and although Croatia will lack their striker Mandzukic, they shown already at the world cup that anyone can score for that team like Perisic, Rakitic, Modric etc. Over 2.5 goals at 2.15 is another bet worth a look at. Because Croatia are slightly depleted we’re also looking at a Spain win here. The odds for a win are just 1.67 so we’re looking at a -1 AH for Spain at 2.30. If they win by one goal your money’s back so there isn’t that much bigger risk than just picking a win. Spain are unbelievably strong at home (unbeaten in 15 years in competitive matches) and given the fact that Croatia are a weakened side especially defensively this could turn into dominant Spain win. We know that Spain flopped the world cup and Croatia made the final but the truth is Spain are still the better team and without the distractions of a coaching change they should blossom again. We expect Spain to win 3-1. All odds are based on TonyBet and they’re subject to change.
Match Odds (TonyBet)
Spain Win – 1.67
Draw – 3.65
Croatia Win – 5.40
KICK OFF – 11th September 2018 – 7:45pm UK Time
