NASCAR Odds

Things are always interesting when NASCAR visits one of its two restrictor-plate tracks, and Sunday’s Aaron’s 499 at Talladega will be the first time the drivers will race one of those tracks with the new rear spoilers on their cars, so no one knows quite what to expect.

For once, Jimmie Johnson is not the favorite on Bodog’s NASCAR odds to win. In fact, he isn’t even fourth. The opening co-favorites were Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. at 10/1 on Bodog.

Junior might be close to ending his victory drought as he had his best overall statistical race last week at Texas and finished second at the first restrictor-plate race this season, the Daytona 500. He also was second at this race last year. Only Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Sr. have more wins at Talladega than Junior’s five, although the last one was back in 2004.

Busch has won at both Daytona and Talladega in his career, but that April 2008 victory here is his only Top 10 ever at the track. He was 25th in this race last year, so his odds seem a bit low. Stewart won here as recently as 2008 and has six runner-up finishes in his career at Talladega. But he has not been a factor in the past three races at the track, with a best finish of 23rd.

The favorite this week on Bodog’s NASCAR odds should probably be Gordon, and he opened at 11/1. Gordon certainly loves Talladega, as he has six wins (most among active drivers) and 16 Top-10 finishes in 34 starts. He won both races at the track in 2007 but hasn’t finished better than 19th in the four races here since. However, Gordon led the most laps last week at Texas and seems to be on the verge of a victory. No driver has won more restrictor-plate races than Gordon.

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I was at the race this weekend and I could not believe it. Jimmie Johnson got more boos than Jeff Gordon.

Kurt Busch continued his run as arguably the hottest driver in NASCAR by taking the pole for Sunday’s Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 in the Sprint Cup series’ first of two visits this year to Michigan International Speedway. As one would expect, Busch is among the betting favorites at Bodog’s NASCAR odds to win at 7/1.

Busch, really the only top driver in a Dodge, enters Sunday's race fifth in the point standings. He swept the All-Star event and the 600-mile race at Charlotte last month then finished sixth last week at Pocono despite not having a great car. In his previous 19 races at MIS, Busch’s best grid position was fourth in June 2003. He won at MIS in 2003 and 2007.

It might be time to start asking questions about four-time series champion Jimmie Johnson, who is sixth in the points. He won three of the season’s first five races but hasn’t since. In two of the past four races he has finished 36th or worse, although he did finish fifth last week at Pocono. There are five tracks on the circuit that Johnson has never won at, and Michigan is one of them – yet he is still the 3/1 favorite on Bodog’s NASCAR odds. In 16 career starts at MIS, Johnson’s best finish is third in the August 2007 race. He did lead the most combined laps in last year’s two MIS races but fuel problems cost him.

Actually all of Hendrick Motorsports is struggling a bit, of which Johnson is a part of. Mark Martin, the defending champ of this race, hasn’t led a lap in the past five races. Jeff Gordon has led a total of just three laps in the past five stops, while Johnson has been shut out of the laps-led category of three of the five tracks. Dale Earnhardt Jr. hasn’t finished better than 18th in the past five races. Might this be the week for Junior to break out? He has one win in the past 148 races – that coming here in June 2008. Junior has seven top-10s in 21 career starts at MIS, but five have come in the past eight races, including all four of his top-fives.

Look for Gordon to be in contention on Sunday. He finished second in both Michigan races last year and has a whopping eight runner-up finishes here in 34 career starts. Gordon has 17 top-fives at MIS.

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NASCAR odds wind their way to Virginia this week for the Nationwide Series Richmond 250. As usual, NASCAR betting fans should expect Nationwide leader Brad Keselowski to be in the thick of things.

Keselowski will have extra motivation to take care of business in Richmond, as the driver has struggled in recent weeks. He placed fourth at Montreal to close out August but, in his race before that, Keselowski managed just 14th in Bristol. Last week, he placed 12th in Atlanta, giving him two finishes outside the Top-10 in his past three outings. To put that into perspective, Keselowski has only missed the Top-10 five times in 26 starts this year.

Carl Edwards, meanwhile, is gaining some momentum. Edwands — who sits second in the Nationwide standings — placed third in Atlanta, giving him three Top-5 finishes in his past four starts. He could certainly use a win, though, as he has just two on the season — and none since July 17 (he captured the checkered flag at the Gateway International).

If Edwards is gaining momentum, Kyle Busch is on absolute fire. He finished second in Atlanta last week to push his incredible Top-5 streak to 13 of his last 14 starts. Busch also has wins in seven of his last 11 races. There’s little doubt Busch has been the best driver this year, but he ranks just third in the Nationwide standings because he has five fewer starts than Keselowski.

Finally, keep a close eye on Kevin Harvick. Though he ranks just sixth in the standings, Harvick has raced quite well in recent weeks. Last week’s fourth-place finish in Atlanta gives him a Top-5 finish in three of his past four starts.

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